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Subject: Indian-N:  Tropical Weather Outlook 
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 12:09:28 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 221207


 TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 22.03.2022


SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL  AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
1130 UTC OF 22.03.2022 BASED ON 0900 UTC OF 22.03.2022.


SUBJECT: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS
OF EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL CROSSED MYANMAR COAST.


THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING AREAS OF
EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF 20 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, CROSSED MYANMAR COAST NEAR
LATITUDE 16.0ON & LONGITUDE 94.2OE AS A DEEP DEPRESSION
BETWEEN 0800 UTC & 0900 UTC AND  LAY CENTERED AT 0900 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 22ND MARCH, OVER COASTAL MYANMAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.3ON &
LONGITUDE 94.3OE, ABOUT 210 KM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON (48097),
240 KM SOUTH OF THANDWE (48080), 410 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
MAYABUNDAR (43309), 540 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT BLAIR (43333).


IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS INLAND OVER
MYANMAR AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY INTO A DEPRESSION DURING NEXT FEW
HOURS.


FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME  POSITION    MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC DISTURBANCE
(UTC)   (LAT. ON/ LONG. OE)  WIND SPEED (KMPH)

22.03.22/0900  16.3/94.3   50-60 GUSTING TO 70   DEEP DEPRESSION

22.03.22/1200  16.7/94.4   45-55 GUSTING TO 65   DEPRESSION

22.03.22/1800  17.6/94.8   40-50 GUSTING TO 60   DEPRESSION


AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERISED
AS C.I. 2.0. ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED
INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA OFF
SOUTH MYANMAR COAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL BETWEEN
LATITUDE 14.5ON & 18.0ON AND LONGITUDE 91.0OE & 95.0OE AND OVER
SOUTH MYANMAR COAST, ARAKAN COAST AND GULF OF MARTABAN. MINIMUM
CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AROUND MINUS 93 OC.


THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN
SEA AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1002 HPA.


STORM SURGE GUIDANCE

THE PEAK STORM SURGE OF 0.3 M TO 0.5 M OVER AND ABOVE THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IS LIKELY TO INUNDATE THE LOW LYING AREAS OF
COASTAL MYANMAR DURING NEXT 3 HOURS AND DECREASE THEREAFTER (MAP
ENCLOSED).


REMARKS:


SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 28-290C OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA
AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB) BECOMING 26-280C OVER
NORTHEAST BOB. TROPICAL CYCLONE HEAT POTENTIAL IS AROUND 60-80
KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50 KJ/CM2 OVER NORTH
BOB.


LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN LAST 6 HOURS REMAINS AROUND 70-80 X10-6 S-1
TO THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA
LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 30X10-5 S-1 AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KNOTS) AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDSWARDS ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE LYING
TO IT\U2019S NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN NEAR 170N.


DD: DEEP DEPRESSION


STORM SURGE GUIDANCE FROM INCOIS (ISSUED AT 0630 UTC)


FISHERMAN WARNING=

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