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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Disturbance 10 
Message-ID: <20220322125748.C54551C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 12:57:48 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 221254
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10

2.A POSITION 2022/03/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 79.7 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 9 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/23 00 UTC: 12.6 S / 78.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/23 12 UTC: 13.0 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 205 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/24 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/24 12 UTC: 13.9 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 230 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 0 NW: 85

60H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 14.3 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 15.7 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 325 SW: 150 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 77.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 455 SW: 250 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 85
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55

120H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 79.5 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 415 SW: 285 NW: 270
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 240 SW: 205 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 80 SE: 90 SW: 80 NW: 80
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0

DURING THE LAST 12 HOURS, SATELLITE IMAGES DO NOT SHOW A CLEAR
IMPROVEMENT ON THE ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE AMRS2 PASS OF
0813Z STILL SHOWS A RATHER DISORGANIZED CONFIGURATION. THE SYSTEM IS
THEREFORE MAINTAINED AT THE STAGE OF TROPICAL DISTURBANCE WITH WINDS
OF 25KT.

THE GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS TAKING PLACE UNTIL MID-WEEK
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A STRONG LOW TO MID LEVELS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.
FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARDS, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHIFTS
WESTWARD AND A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
INCREASINGLY APPARENT TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT,
THE SYSTEM SHOULD SIGNIFICANTLY SLOW DOWN ITS WESTWARD PROGRESSION ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE WEAKNESS IS MAINTAINED
TO THE SOUTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH BETWEEN
80TH AND 90TH WILL REINFORCE A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAKING THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A POLEWARD TRACK FROM FRIDAY. AVAILABLE GUIDANCE
MAINLY AGREES WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF
THIS SOUTHWARD TURN IS STILL VERY UNCERTAIN, AS SHOWN BY STRONG
DISPERSION DISPLAYED BY GEFS AND EPS ENSEMBLE FORECASTS AFETER THIS
TURN. THE LAST RUNS OF THE DETERMINIST MODELS HAVE HOWEVER A TENDENCY
TO SLOW DOWN A BIT MORE AND THUS HAVE A MORE EASTERN TRACK THAN
BEFORE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST, BASED ON A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE LAST
RUNS OF THE DETERMINIST MODELS IFS AND GFS, WHILE REMAINING ALSO
QUITE CLOSE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE MEMBERS OF THE EPS, IS THUS
SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE EAST THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EVOLVING JUST NORTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE IN AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY A MODERATE TO FAIRLY STRONG (15-20 KT)
EASTERLY SHEAR. SOME NORTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR IS ALSO CONTRIBUTING
TO MAINTAIN SOME DRY MID-TROPOSPHERIC AIR NEAR THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. IN THE COMING DAYS, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE FROM TOMORROW EVENING ON
WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL (SST AT 29-30C). THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
TRACK WILL PROGRESSIVELY PLACE THE SYSTEM IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS. FINALLY,
THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORED AT FIRST ON THE EQUATORIAL
SIDE AND THEN FROM THURSDAY BOTH ON THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES
OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW INTENSIFICATION DURING THE
FIRST 24 HOURS THEN A REGULAR OR EVEN SUSTAINED ONE IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS PROCESS OF INTENSIFICATION IS
TEMPORARILY STOPPED AT THE TIME OF THE CHANGE OF TRACK BECAUSE OF THE
IMPORTANT SLOWING DOWN OF THE SYSTEM AT THIS MOMENT. THE SYSTEM,
EXPECTED TO BE MATURE AND POWERFUL, COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEA WATER
THAT IT HAS ITSELF COOLED. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS UNDER ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD AT LEAST UNTIL
SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY ONWARDS, INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR
COULD GRADUALLY START TO WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

IN THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THIS CYCLONIC PHENOMENON SHOULD STAY FAR
FROM ANY INHABITED LAND. IN VIEW OF THE LAST TRAJECTORY PREDICTED
FURTHER EAST, THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT RISK OF IMPACT FOR THE ISLAND
OF RODRIGUES.=

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