Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220322132940.174381C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 13:29:40 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-To: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Sender: wx-tropl-request@lists.illinois.edu
Archived-At: <https://lists.illinois.edu/lists/arcsearch_id/wx-tropl/2022-03/20220322132940.174381C0EEF%40weather.cod.edu>
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1647955786-9915-759"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1647955786-9915-759
Content-Type: text/plain

AXAU01 APRF 221329
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1329 UTC 22/03/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 17.5S
Longitude: 108.7E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (215 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots (230 km/h)
Central Pressure: 957 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.0/5.5/D1.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS 
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  22/1800: 17.9S 108.3E:     040 (075):  080  (150):  966
+12:  23/0000: 18.2S 108.0E:     055 (105):  070  (130):  971
+18:  23/0600: 18.5S 107.6E:     065 (120):  060  (110):  977
+24:  23/1200: 18.8S 107.4E:     070 (125):  055  (100):  982
+36:  24/0000: 19.5S 106.8E:     070 (125):  045  (085):  990
+48:  24/1200: 20.9S 106.5E:     100 (185):  035  (065):  994
+60:  25/0000: 23.2S 106.8E:     150 (275):  035  (065):  996
+72:  25/1200: 25.9S 108.2E:     190 (355):  035  (065):  995
+96:  26/1200: 28.6S 111.4E:     250 (465):  040  (075):  988
+120: 27/1200: 27.5S 111.4E:     360 (660):  040  (075):  986
REMARKS:
Severe Tropical cyclone Charlotte has begun to weaken, with the eye diminishing
over the last couple of hours.  

CIMSS has shear around 15-20 knots northeasterly, however the shear is modelled
to become more north northwest. Recent satellite imagery shows the temperature
gradient tightening in the northern quadrants and is likely reflecting the
change in the upper winds. The upper circulation is likely to be slightly
displaced to the southeast of the low level centre. 

Dvorak analysis: eye pattern with W surround and W eye surrounded by CMG giving
DT=5.0 over past 3 hours; weak developing 24hr trend and with pattern
adjustment for MET=5.0, FT is lowered to 5.0 but CI held at 5.5. NOAA ADT [21S]
has CI of 4.0 but has struggled over the last 12 hours to identify the
appropriate Scene Type pattern. Intensity estimated at 90 kn based on Dvorak
CI. 

Charlotte has peaked in intensity. The environment becomes less favourable with
increasing wind shear and dry air intruding from the north and hence weakening
should be pronounced during Wednesday. Weakening below TC intensity is forecast
late Thursday (+60h), again much later than guidance indicates.    
  
Charlotte is moving slowly under the influence of a mid-level high to the
southeast which should persist before the steering influence shifts to be more
southerly owing to the stationary upper trough by Thursday. The system is then
forecast to gradually lose its tropical characteristics and become sub-tropical
as it tracks to the south then southeast off the west coast later in the week.
Gales are forecast to persist south of the centre, or even be enhanced. The
system may stall off the west coast on the weekend but the potential scenario
of the system moving close to the lower west coast and causing wind and rain
impacts for the weekend will continue to be closely examined in coming days. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1930 UTC. 


------------=_1647955786-9915-759
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1647955786-9915-759--