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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: (the Bay Of Bengal  And Arabian Sea) Valid For Next 120 Hours 
Message-ID: <20220322152229.F304A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 15:22:29 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 221500
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 22.03.2022

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN
(THE BAY OF BENGAL  AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS
ISSUED AT 1500 UTC OF 22.03.2022 BASED ON 1200 UTC OF 22.03.2022.

SUBJECT: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL MYANMAR WEAKENED INTO A
         DEPRESSION

THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL MYANMAR MOVED NEARLY
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 15 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS,
WEAKENED INTO A DEPRESSION AND  LAY CENTERED AT 1200 UTC OF TODAY,
THE 22ND MARCH, OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY
OF BENGAL NEAR LATITUDE 16.6ON & LONGITUDE 94.4OE, ABOUT 190 KM
WEST OF YANGON (48097), 210 KM SOUTH OF THANDWE (48080), 440 KM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAYABUNDAR (43309), 580 KM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF
PORT BLAIR (43333).

IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN
GRADUALLY INTO A WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA BY TOMORROW, THE
23RD  MORNING.

FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:

DATE/TIME     POSITION     MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  CATEGORY OF
CYCLONIC
 (UTC)    (LAT.ON/ LONG.OE)   WIND SPEED (KMPH)        DISTURBANCE

22.03.22/1200  16.6/94.4     45-55 GUSTING TO 65       DEPRESSION

22.03.22/1800  17.5/94.5     40-50 GUSTING TO 60       DEPRESSION

23.03.22/0000  18.4/94.6     20-30 GUSTING TO 40     WELL MARKED LOW
                                                      PRESSURE AREA

AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER LAND. ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE
CONVECTION LAY OVER EAST CENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL AND ADJOINING NORTH
ANDAMAN SEA OFF SOUTH MYANMAR COAST AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY
OF BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 14.5ON & 19.0ON AND LONGITUDE 91.0OE &
95.0OE AND OVER SOUTH MYANMAR ARANAN COAST & GULF OF MARTABAN.
MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AROUND MINUS 93 OC.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KNOTS GUSTING TO
35 KNOTS. THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA
AND ADJOINING SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.

REMARKS:

LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN LAST 6 HOURS REMAINS AROUND 70-80 X10-6 S-1
TO THE SOUTH OF SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA
LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 30X10-5 S-1 AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 10 X10-5 S-1 AROUND SYSTEM CENTRE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KNOTS) AROUND THE
SYSTEM CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE LYING TO IT IS NORTHEAST
OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN
NEAR 19ON.=

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