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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian 
Message-ID: <20220322180054.C27391C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 18:00:54 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZMAR2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1N 94.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 94.1E, APPROXIMATELY 77
NM SOUTH-SOUTH WEST OF THANDWE, MYANMAR. ENHANCED ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BROAD CONVECTION WITH NO
DISCERNIBLE LOW LEVEL CENTER. A PARTIAL 221451Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
25KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF 91B. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY
STRONG OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 91B WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE COAST OF MYANMAR AND DISSIPATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22MAR22 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.5S 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 403 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 85
KNOTS GUSTING TO 105 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 221500) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.2S 81.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 79.3E, APPROXIMATELY 513
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221255Z SSMIS 37GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS MARGINALLY
IMPROVED LOW LEVEL STRUCTURE AND CONTINUED FLARING CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT,
LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL
CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN


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