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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 10 
Message-ID: <20220322190614.A27971C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 19:06:14 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 221835
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2022/03/22 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 78.0 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY EIGHT    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 14 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.0/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 130 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/23 06 UTC: 13.2 S / 76.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 195 SW: 0 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/23 18 UTC: 13.3 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 95

36H: 2022/03/24 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 280 SW: 165 NW: 0
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 75 SW: 0 NW: 0

48H: 2022/03/24 18 UTC: 13.7 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/25 06 UTC: 14.8 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 335 SW: 175 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 16.5 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 350 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 21.2 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 390 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 24.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 400 SW: 185 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 205 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.0+

COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO, THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE SYSTEM HAS TENDED
TO IMPROVE WITH MORE CURVATURE IN THE CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS. MICROWAVE
IMAGERY OF THE EVENING (SSMIS FROM 1253Z AND AMSUB METOP FROM 1622Z)
SUGGESTS A SOME IMPROVEMENTS OF THE LOW LEVELS PATTERN. THE SMAP PASS
OF 1242Z SUGGESTS THAT NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS EXIST IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE AND RELATIVELY CLOSE TO THE CENTER. THE INTENSITY IS THUS
FIXED AT 30 KT.

THE LATEST FIXS SHOW THAT THE SYSTEM IS MOVING QUITE RAPIDLY IN A
GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWEST DIRECTION. THIS MOVEMENT, ON THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE, SHOULD STRONGLY
SLOW DOWN FROM TOMORROW. INDEED, THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND A WEAKNESS SHOULD BE FELT MORE
AND MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THOUGH THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY
ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE WEAKNESS IS MAINTAINED TO THE SOUTH, A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED NORTH-SOUTH BETWEEN 80TH AND 90TH WILL
REINFORCE A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAKING THE SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A
POLEWARDS TRACK. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
HOWEVER, THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN TO THE SOUTH IS STILL
RATHER UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE DISPERSION DISPLAYED BY THE GUIDANCE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS BEEN SLIGHTLY SHIFTED TO THE WEST TO TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT THE CURRENT FAST FORWARD MOTION.

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING ON THE SYSTEM AS SHOWN BY THE
CIRRUS SPREAD AROUND THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION MUST NOW CONSOLIDATE FURTHER TO FINALIZE THE CYCLOGENESIS
PROCESS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS : THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE FROM
TOMORROW EVENING ON WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL (SST AT
29-30C). THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WILL PROGRESSIVELY PLACE THE SYSTEM
IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
CONDITIONS. FINALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORED AT
FIRST ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE AND THEN FROM THURSDAY ON THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. IN THIS CONTEXT, A SLOW
INTENSIFICATION DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS THEN A REGULAR OR EVEN
SUSTAINED ONE IS ENVISAGED FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THIS PROCESS
OF INTENSIFICATION IS TEMPORARILY STOPPED AT THE TIME OF THE CHANGE
OF TRAJECTORY BECAUSE OF THE IMPORTANT SLOWING DOWN OF THE SPEED OF
DISPLACEMENT AT THIS MOMENT. THE SYSTEM, EXPECTED TO BE MATURE AND
POWERFUL, COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEA WATER THAT IT HAS ITSELF COOLED.
OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM,
MOST NOTICEABLY ON SUNDAY.

ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR FROM ANY
INHABITED LAND.=

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