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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Tue, 22 Mar 2022 21:03:29 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 222103
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Tue Mar 22 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning: A strong cold front reaching the SW Gulf of Mexico
will cause a N gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
beginning Wed evening. This should peak with gale-force winds 
from Thu through Sat. On Sun, the gap winds should continue, but 
diminish down to a strong breeze. Seas of at least 8 ft should 
begin Thu, peak around 12 ft Thu night through Fri, and may 
diminish below 8 ft by Sun night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from 06N77W at the border of Colombia 
to 04N106W. From there, the ITCZ extends to beyond 07N140W. 
Isolated moderate convection exists from 00N-05N east of 95W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
05N-10N west of 115W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A 1031 mb high at 36N131W extends a surface ridge to 15N105W.  
Winds across the Mexican offshores are moderate or weaker this
afternoon. Seas are 6-8 ft primarily in NW swell west of the 
Baja California peninsula, 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California, and
3-5 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, a strong cold front reaching the SW Gulf of 
Mexico will cause gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec beginning Thu. These N winds may remain at gale-force
through Sat before diminishing by Sun. Deepening low pressure 
over the Great Basin will force fresh to strong NW winds over the
Gulf of California from Wed night through Thu morning. Large NW 
swell west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually 
diminish over the next day or two.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E winds are occurring over the Papagayo region this
afternoon. Elsewhere, gentle SE to S winds prevail south of the 
surface trough along 06N with gentle to moderate E winds north 
of the trough. Seas are 3-6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate Caribbean trades are forcing fresh to
strong E winds in the Papagayo region through at least Sun 
night. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker over the
Central American and equatorial offshore zones for the next 
several days. Large W to NW swell from a Tehuantepecer gap wind 
event should begin impacting the Guatemala and El Salvador 
offshore zones beginning Thu night and continue through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1031 mb high at 36N131W and low 
pressure along the ITCZ is contributing toward generally moderate
to fresh NE trades mainly between 08N-20N west of 125W. Seas in 
this area are 8-9 ft. Additionally, fresh N winds are occurring 
north of 25N between 120W-125W. Seas here are also 8-9 ft. 
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front approaches our waters from the
northwest, but goes stationary and weakens before reaching 30N140W.
However, the high north of the area does diminish, allowing the 
trades to decrease substantially down to moderate or gentle over
most of the High Seas. A vigorous extratropical low is expected
to move eastward while centered just north of our 30N border on 
Sat and Sun with increasing winds and building seas north of 25N 
west of 120W. 

$$
Landsea


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