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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Depression 10 
Message-ID: <20220323010653.B2C3D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 01:06:53 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 230105
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10

2.A POSITION 2022/03/23 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 77.4 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/23 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 76.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 215 SW: 165 NW: 75
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

24H: 2022/03/24 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

36H: 2022/03/24 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 75.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 240 SW: 150 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 55
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 15.5 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 315 SW: 150 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 17.5 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 370 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 85 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 455 SW: 250 NW: 230
34 KT NE: 155 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

120H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 24.4 S / 79.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 400 SW: 185 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 100 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5

SINCE 20Z, THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING NEAR
THE CENTER WITH INCREASING SIGNS OF CURVATURES ON THE LATEST
CONVENTIONAL IMAGERY. THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY COLLECTED LAST NIGHT
(PARTIAL AMSR2 FROM 2042Z AND SSMIS FROM 2233Z) SHOWS HOWEVER THAT
THE LOW LEVELS ORGANIZATION STILL LACKS CONSOLIDATION. THE INTENSITY
REMAINS FIXED AT 30 KT BUT THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE COULD BE REACHED
LATER THIS MORNING.

THE LAST FIXS HAVE REQUIRED SOME CHANGES OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
(POSITION AT 18Z RELOCATED TO 12.8S AND 78.4E). THE SYSTEM IS STILL
MOVING IN A GENERAL WESTERLY DIRECTION QUITE RAPIDLY. THIS MOVEMENT,
CARRIED OUT ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF LOW TO
MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE, SHOULD STRONGLY SLOW DOWN TODAY. INDEED, THE
MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND A
WEAKNESS SHOULD BE FELT MORE AND MORE TO THE SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE
WEAKNESS IS MAINTAINED TO THE SOUTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ORIENTED MERIDIAN BETWEEN 80TH AND 90TH IS REINFORCING A NORTHERLY
DIRECTIONAL FLOW MAKING THE SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A MERIDIAN HEADING.
ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN TO THE SOUTH IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE DISPERSION DISPLAYED BY THE GUIDELINES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A LONG CONSENSUS (TWO LAST RUNS TO
SMOOTH OUT RUN TO RUN VARIATIONS) OF IFS AND GFS AND IS WEST OF THE
CONSENSUS OF ALL THE GUIDELINES.

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS DECREASING ON THE SYSTEM AS SHOWN BY THE
CIRRUS SPREAD AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SHORT TERM: THE
SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE OVER WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL (SST AT
29-30C). THE WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK WILL PROGRESSIVELY PLACE THE SYSTEM
IN PHASE WITH THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOW VERTICAL
SHEAR CONDITIONS. FINALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORED
AT FIRST ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE AND THEN FROM THURSDAY ON THE
NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS COULD BE TEMPORARILY STOPPED AT THE TIME OF THE CHANGE OF
TRACK BECAUSE OF THE IMPORTANT SLOWING DOWN OF THE SPEED OF FORWARD
MOTION AT THIS MOMENT. THE SYSTEM, EXPECTED TO BE MATURE AND
POWERFUL, COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEA WATER THAT IT HAS ITSELF COOLED.
OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IN ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
MORNING. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, A POSSIBLE INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM,
MOST NOTICEABLY ON SUNDAY.

ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR FROM ANY
INHABITED LAND.=

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