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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220323014025.745DF1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 01:40:25 +0000
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AXAU01 APRF 230139
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0139 UTC 23/03/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0000 UTC
Latitude: 18.2S
Longitude: 108.4E
Location Accuracy: within 25nm (45 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (209 deg)
Speed of Movement: 4 knots (7 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 100 knots (185 km/h)
Central Pressure: 971 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 10 nm (20 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W0.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  23/0600: 18.5S 108.1E:     045 (085):  060  (110):  979
+12:  23/1200: 18.8S 107.8E:     060 (105):  050  (095):  986
+18:  23/1800: 19.1S 107.5E:     065 (120):  045  (085):  990
+24:  24/0000: 19.6S 107.2E:     080 (145):  045  (085):  992
+36:  24/1200: 21.2S 106.7E:     105 (190):  040  (075):  998
+48:  25/0000: 23.8S 106.9E:     140 (255):  035  (065):  998
+60:  25/1200: 26.7S 108.4E:     165 (305):  035  (065):  996
+72:  26/0000: 28.9S 110.2E:     185 (345):  040  (075):  993
+96:  27/0000: 28.7S 113.4E:     250 (465):  040  (075):  990
+120: 28/0000: 27.6S 112.6E:     280 (515):  035  (065):  991
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Charlotte has begun weakening, with the eye becoming
more intermittent and less easily identifiable.  

Charlotte is moving slowly to the southwest with recent movement about 5 knots.
CIMSS indicating moderate northerly shear of about 15 knots with a tightening
temperature gradient in northern quadrants on recent satellite imagery. The
upper circulation is likely slightly displaced to the south southeast of the
low level centre. 

Dvorak analysis: embedded centre pattern with light grey surround gives DT=4.5.
Weakening trend gives MET=4.5, PAT=4.0. FT=4.0 based on PAT, and CI=4.5. NOAA
ADT [21S] has CI of 3.8. CIMSS ADT has CI of 4.4. Intensity estimated at 70
knots based on Dvorak CI. 

Charlotte continues to move through a less favourable environment with the
northerly wind shear allowing some dry air to intrude from the north,
especially as it approaches an upper trough to the southwest. Hence weakening
is likely to continue during today and into Thursday. 

Charlotte is moving slowly to the southwest under the influence of a mid-level
high to the southeast. This remains the dominant steering influence until
Thursday when the track becomes more southerly owing to the stationary upper
trough to the southwest.

The system is forecast to gradually lose its tropical characteristics and
become sub-tropical from overnight Thursday. Gales are forecast to persist
south and then west of the centre, and may even be enhanced from Friday. The
system may stall off the west coast on the weekend, possibly causing wind and
rain impacts for the lower west coast of WA.  

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/0730 UTC. 


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