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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-N: Subj/significant Tropical Weather Advisory For The Indian Ocean 
Message-ID: <20220323020124.465B51C0081@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 02:01:24 +0000
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ABIO10 PGTW 230200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/230200Z-231800ZMAR2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221951ZMAR2022//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/230121ZMAR2022//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL
/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 94.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22MAR22 1800Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (CHARLOTTE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 17.8S 109.1E, APPROXIMATELY 390 NM NORTHWEST OF
LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 80
KNOTS GUSTING TO 100 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 222100) FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1)  THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.7S 79.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 77.2E, APPROXIMATELY 439
NM SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ENHANCED ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 222233Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
ACCELERATED INTENSIFICATION AND STRUCTURE WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP
CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY
STRONG POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE
AND DEVELOP WITH POTENTIAL FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW
230130) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: THE AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1)HAS DISSIPATED
AND UPGRADED THE AREA IN 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
NNNN


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