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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 03:03:58 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 230303
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0255 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning: The strong cold front moving across the Gulf of 
Mexico will cause a N gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec
starting Thu afternoon and lasting through Sat. On Sun, the gap 
winds should continue, but diminish down to a strong breeze. Seas
of at least 8 ft should begin Thu, peak around 12 ft Thu night 
through Fri, and may diminish below 8 ft by Sun night.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from the border of Colombia and Panama
near 07N77W to 03N90W to 04N108W. The ITCZ then continues from
04N108W to 06N125W to beyond 06N140W. Isolated moderate 
convection is observed from the equator to 07N and 86W to 95W. 
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 
06N to 10N and W of 110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

The influence of the 1033 mb high pressure system positioned 
near 33N133W extends to the offshore waters of NW Mexico. 
Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and seas of 5-7 ft primarily 
in NW swell are found W of Baja California. In the Gulf of 
California, fresh NW winds prevail. Seas are 1-3 ft in the gulf, 
except for 3-5 ft at the entrance.

Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are occurring over the offshore
waters of SW Mexico with wave heights in the 5-7 ft range. In the
remainder Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec, moderate to locally fresh onshore winds are
prevalent with seas of 2-4 ft.

For the forecast, a strong cold front moving across the Gulf of 
Mexico will cause gale-force N gap winds over the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec beginning Thu. These N winds may remain at gale-force
through Sat before diminishing by Sun. Deepening low pressure 
over the Great Basin will force fresh to strong NW winds over the
Gulf of California from Wed night through Thu morning. Large NW 
swell west of the Baja California peninsula will gradually 
diminish over the next day or two.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh E winds continue to affect the Papagayo region. Moderate to
locally fresh N winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere,
gentle SE to S winds prevail south of the surface trough along 
06N with gentle to moderate E winds north of the trough. Seas are
3-6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate Caribbean trades are forcing fresh to
strong E winds in the Papagayo region and this is expected to
continue through at least Monday. Elsewhere, winds should remain
moderate or weaker over the Central American and equatorial 
offshore zones for the next several days. Large W to NW swell 
from a Tehuantepecer gap wind event should begin impacting the 
Guatemala and El Salvador offshore zones beginning Thu night and 
continue through Sat. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The pressure gradient between a 1033 mb high pressure system
centered near 33N133W and low pressure along the ITCZ results in 
mainly fresh NE trades between 07N to 22N and W of 125W. Seas in
this area are 8-10 ft. Additionally, moderate to locally fresh N
winds are occurring north of 22N between 120W-127W. Seas here 
are near 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas
4-7 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front is approaching our waters from 
the northwest, but goes stationary and weakens before reaching 
30N140W. However, the high north of the area does diminish, 
allowing the trades to decrease substantially down to moderate or
gentle over most of the High Seas by late this week and into the
weekend. Later, a vigorous extratropical low is expected to move
eastward while centered just north of our 30N border on Sat and 
Sun with increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 
120W. 

$$
DELGADO


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