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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: Dems-rsmc Special Tropical Cyclones New Delhi Dated 23.03.2022 
Message-ID: <20220323034419.CE43D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 03:44:19 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 230342
                        TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
DEMS-RSMC SPECIAL TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI DATED 23.03.2022
SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF
BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC
OF
23.03.2022 BASED ON 0000 UTC OF 23.03.2022.

SUBJECT: DEPRESSION OVER MYANMAR
THE DEPRESSION OVER COASTAL MYANMAR AND ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF
BENGAL CONTINUED TO MOVE NEARLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS WITH A SPEED
OF 26 KMPH DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0000 UTC OF 23RD
MARCH, OVER MYANMAR NEAR LATITUDE 19.0ON AND LONGITUDE 94.6OE, ABOUT
300
KM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YANGON (48097) (MYANMAR), 60KM NORTH-NORTHEAST
OF THANDWE (48080)(MYANMAR).
IT WOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS AND WEAKEN
GRADUALLY INTO A WELL-MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA DURING NEXT 6-HOURS.
 FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE :

 DATE/TIME       POSITION        MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE  CATEGORY
OF
  (UTC)       (LAT.ON/LONG.O E)      WIND SPEED (KMPH)
CYCLONIC  DISTURBANCE

23.03.22/0000   19.0/94.6        35-45 GUSTING TO 55    DEPRESSION
23.03.22/0600   19.8/94.8        25-35 GUSTING TO 45    WELL-MARKED
LOW

AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, THE SYSTEM CENTER IS OVER MYANMAR.
ASSOCIATED
BROKEN LOW/MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED MODERATE TO INTENSE CONVECTION
OVER EASTCENTRAL ADJOINING NORTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL, NORTH ANDAMAN SEA
BETWEEN LAT. 16.0ON TO 20.0ON LONG. 91.0OE TO 96.0OE AND ALSO OVER
SOUTH MYANMAR
ARAKAN COAST & GULF OF MARTABAN. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS
AROUND
MINUS 60OC.

THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 20 KNOTS GUSTING TO 30
KNOTS.
THE SEA CONDITION IS VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN ROUGH ALONG & OFF NORTH
MYANMAR
AND ADJOINING BANGLADESH COASTS AND ADJOINING AREAS OF EASTCENTRAL
BAY OF
BENGAL TILL AFTERNOON OF TODAY, THE 23RD MARCH AND GRADUALLY IMPROVE
THEREAFTER. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 HPA.

THIS IS A GUIDANCE BULLETIN FOR THE WMO/ESCAP PANEL MEMBER
COUNTRIES,. PLEASE VISIT RESPECTIVE NATIONAL WEBSITES FOR COUNTRY
SPECIFIC BULLETINS

REMARKS:
LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IN LAST 6 HOURS REMAINS AROUND 70-80 X10-6 S-1 TO
THE SOUTH
OF SYSTEM CENTRE WITH VERTICAL EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW
LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IS 10X10-5 S-1 IN NORTHEAST DIRECTION OF SYSTEM CENTRE.
UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS AROUND 05 X10-5 S-1 NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM
CENTRE.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS MODERATE TO HIGH (15-20 KNOTS) AROUND THE
SYSTEM
CENTRE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARDS ALONG
THE
PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE LYING OVER MYANMAR & ADJOINING THAILAND.
UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN NEAR 19ON.=

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