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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220323071715.D3E8E1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 07:17:15 +0000
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AXAU01 APRF 230717
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0717 UTC 23/03/2022
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 19.0S
Longitude: 108.8E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south (187 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots (120 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots (165 km/h)
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm (30 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.5/W1.0/24HRS STT:0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm (220 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  23/1200: 19.5S 108.5E:     040 (075):  055  (100):  986
+12:  23/1800: 19.9S 107.9E:     055 (105):  050  (095):  990
+18:  24/0000: 20.5S 107.6E:     070 (130):  045  (085):  992
+24:  24/0600: 21.1S 107.3E:     080 (145):  040  (075):  996
+36:  24/1800: 23.2S 107.1E:     100 (190):  040  (075):  998
+48:  25/0600: 26.0S 108.0E:     135 (250):  035  (065):  997
+60:  25/1800: 28.7S 109.7E:     160 (295):  040  (075):  995
+72:  26/0600: 29.9S 111.5E:     170 (315):  040  (075):  991
+96:  27/0600: 29.1S 113.7E:     290 (535):  040  (075):  989
+120: 28/0600: 28.3S 112.7E:     320 (590):  035  (065):  991
REMARKS:
Severe tropical cyclone Charlotte continues to slowly weaken due to dry air
intrusion from the west.

Charlotte is moving slowly to the south-southwest with recent movement about 6
knots. CIMSS is indicating light to moderate north to northwesterly shear of
about 10 knots. The upper circulation is likely slightly displaced to the south
to southeast of the low level centre.

Intensity estimated at 65 knots based on Dvorak CI and AiDT. Dvorak analysis:
embedded centre pattern with medium grey surround gives DT=4.0, curved band
patterns give DTs of 3 to 3.5. Weakening trend gives MET=4.5, PAT=4.0. FT=4.0
based on PAT, and CI=4.5. NOAA ADT [21S] has CI of 3.8. CIMSS ADT has CI of
4.1, AiDT is at 71 kn 1-minute wind and there is no recent SATCON. Recent ASCAT
scatterometry and GMI microwave pass confirmed the position of the system. 

Charlotte is moving towards cooler SSTs as it tracks south-southwest under the
influence of a mid-upper high to the east-northeast. Cooler SSTs and dry air to
its west will cause the system to weaken further into Thursday.

An upper trough to the system's southwest will cause the system to track more
southerly, then south-southeasterly through Friday. The system is forecast to
gradually lose its tropical characteristics and become sub-tropical from
overnight Thursday into Friday. Gales are forecast to persist due to the
interaction between the system and the upper trough as the low tracks
south-southeast. In the long-term, the system is likely to stall near the west
coast on the weekend, possibly causing wind and rain impacts for the lower west
coast of WA. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1330 UTC. 


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