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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 11:54:35 +0000
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596 
AWIO20 FMEE 231103

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/23 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 007/10 and WTIO30 007/10 about the Tropical Storm HALIMA issued at 06UTC and next.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:

The trans-equatorial flow is again present east of 55oE and feeds a monsoon trough that undulates around 10oS. However, it is disturbed by the presence of tropical storm HALIMA that circulates over the center of the basin.

Most of the convective activity is concentrated around the storm and on the equatorial side of the TM.

Moderate tropical storm HALIMA :

Position at 09UTC : 12.6S 76.7E

Displacement : West 11km/h

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 65km/h

Minimum pressure at the center : 997hPa
For more information on this system, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 which will be issued today from 12UTC.

Elsewhere in the basin, no area has the potential for cyclogenesis for the next 5 days.

There is no other significant system expected to develop within the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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