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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220323131621.58E2F1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 13:16:21 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 231315
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/23 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 76.5 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/18 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 997 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 370 SW: 260 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 95 SW: 95 NW: 55

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 76.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/24 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 95 SE: 165 SW: 195 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 55 NW: 65
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 16.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 260 SW: 140 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 75.8 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 370 SW: 240 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 155
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 24.5 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 260 NW: 215
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=2.5+

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS STILL QUITE FLUCTUATING, WITH A
CIRCULATION THAT APPEARED TEMPORARILY AT THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING.  THE RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AMSR2
FROM 0855Z) CONFIRMS THE CURVATURE IN THE LOW LAYERS, AND HAS ALLOWED
TO RELOCATE THE POSITION ANALYZED AT 06Z A LITTLE MORE THAN 30MN TO
THE EAST.

THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN IN THE MORNING ON A STILL WESTERLY
TRAJECTORY. IT SHOULD START A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH, INDEED, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OF MEDIUM TROPOSPHERE IS SHIFTING TOWARDS THE WEST
AND A WEAKNESS SHOULD BE FELT MORE AND MORE IN THE SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM.
DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY BUT ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE
WEAKNESS IS MAINTAINED TO THE SOUTH, A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ORIENTED MERIDIAN BETWEEN 80TH AND 90TH STRENGTHENS A NORTHERLY
DIRECTIONAL FLOW MAKING THE SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A MERIDIAN COURSE.
ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE
LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN TO THE SOUTH IS STILL RATHER
UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE DISPERSION DISPLAYED BY THE GUIDELINES. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF IFS AND GFS
DETERMINISTS.

THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS DECREASED ON THE SYSTEM AS SHOWN BY THE
CIRRUS SPREAD AROUND THE CIRCULATION. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY: THE SYSTEM WILL
CIRCULATE OVER WATERS WITH HIGH ENERGY POTENTIAL (SST AT 29-30C). THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST TRAJECTORY WILL PROGRESSIVELY PLACE THE SYSTEM IN
PHASE WITH THE UPPER RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR
CONDITIONS. FINALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WILL BE FAVORED AT
FIRST ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE AND THEN FROM THURSDAY ON THE NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN SIDES OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS COULD
BE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN AT THE TIME OF THE CHANGE OF TRAJECTORY
BECAUSE OF THE IMPORTANT SLOWING DOWN OF THE SPEED OF DISPLACEMENT AT
THIS TIME. THE SYSTEM, COULD BE AFFECTED BY SEA WATER THAT IT HAS
ITSELF COOLED. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS IN
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING GOOD AT LEAST UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT
OR SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES, A POSSIBLE INCREASE
IN NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR COULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.

ON THE CURRENT SCENARIO, THIS SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN FAR FROM ANY
INHABITED LAND.=

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