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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220323132205.E39521C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 13:22:05 +0000
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AXAU01 APRF 231321
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1321 UTC 23/03/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 19.5S
Longitude: 108.3E
Location Accuracy: within 20nm (35 km)
Movement Towards: south southwest (205 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots (100 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots (140 km/h)
Central Pressure: 980 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 120 nm (220 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm (95 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 20 nm (35 km)
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm (35 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/4.0/W1.5/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  23/1800: 19.9S 108.0E:     040 (075):  050  (095):  984
+12:  24/0000: 20.3S 107.7E:     060 (110):  045  (085):  988
+18:  24/0600: 21.0S 107.3E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  990
+24:  24/1200: 21.7S 106.9E:     070 (130):  040  (075):  990
+36:  25/0000: 24.3S 107.5E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  994
+48:  25/1200: 27.3S 109.1E:     110 (205):  035  (065):  991
+60:  26/0000: 29.1S 111.1E:     145 (270):  040  (075):  987
+72:  26/1200: 29.2S 112.9E:     185 (345):  040  (075):  986
+96:  27/1200: 27.7S 112.5E:     265 (490):  040  (075):  988
+120: 28/1200: 28.7S 111.3E:     350 (650):  035  (065):  988
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Charlotte continues to weaken due to dry air intrusion from
the west. The low level centre has become separated from the deep convection. 

Charlotte is moving slowly to the south-southwest at around 6 knots. Recent
motion has been in a southwesterly direction as the low level centre becomes
disconnected from the deep convection. CIMSS is indicating light to moderate
northerly shear of about 12 knots, however there are some stronger mid level
winds near and east of the centre that are proving more disruptive to the
circulation than the diagnosed shear may indicate. The edge of the deep
convection is now displaced more than 30 nautical mile southeast of the low
level centre. 

Dvorak analysis: shear pattern with the low level centre around 0.5 degree from
the dense overcast DT=3.0. Strong weakening trend gives MET=3.5, PAT=3.0.
FT=3.5 based on MET, and CI=4.0. CIMSS ADT has CI of 3.7, AiDT is at 55 kn
1-minute wind and there is no recent SATCON. Intensity estimated at 55 knots
based on Dvorak CI. An SSMIS microwave pass at 1058UTC gives good confidence in
the position of the system. 

Charlotte is moving towards cooler SSTs as it tracks south-southwest under the
influence of a mid-upper high to the east-northeast. Dry air in the middle
levels of the atmosphere combined with increasing shear will cause Charlotte to
continue weakening, and the system will most likely be below tropical cyclone
intensity by late Thursday.  

An upper trough to the system's southwest will cause the system to track more
southerly, then south-southeasterly through Friday. The system is forecast to
gradually lose its tropical characteristics and become sub-tropical from
overnight Thursday into Friday. Gales are forecast to persist due to the
interaction between the system and the upper trough as the low tracks
south-southeast. In the long-term, the system is likely to stall near the west
coast on the weekend, possibly causing wind and rain impacts for the lower west
coast of WA.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 23/1930 UTC. 


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