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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220323192220.B70031C0081@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 19:22:20 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 231922
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed Mar 23 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A strong cold front from the
north central to the southwest Gulf of Mexico will induce a
northerly gap wind event of the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this
evening. Winds will increase to gale-force by Thu afternoon and
continue through Sat morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast
thereafter through the remainder of the upcoming weekend. Seas=20
of at least 8 ft are forecast to develop by late Thu morning,=20
peaking around 13 ft Thu night through Fri. Seas are forecast to
subside to less than 8 ft Sun afternoon and night.
Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the=20
National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!uMFtEAx4XIPQlYJBAI2sLzKarGt9dPMEH6yNcsCUV1qY3TlqAu80DmRZ8_yaTUysM=
LGrT0lL$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from the border of Panama and Colombia=20
near 07N78W to 05N95W to 05N119W. The ITCZ extends from 05N120W
to 05N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated=20
strong convection is noted from 03S to 04N between 79W and 89W,
from 06N to 08N between 87W and 90W, from 04N to 09N between 115W
and 121W, and from 04N to 08N between 134W and 140W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 05N between 101W and
109W, and from 06N to 08N between 124W and 128W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

A 1029 mb high pressure system located north of the area near=20
34N134W continues to dominate the weather conditions across most
of the tropical Pacific, including the offshore waters of=20
Mexico. Moderate NW-N winds dominate the waters from offshore of=20
Jalisco northward to offshore of the Baja California Peninsula,=20
with mainly 5 to 6 ft seas in moderate NW swell. Similar winds=20
are blowing across the Gulf of California, locally fresh, along=20
with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds are offshore of the
waters south of Jalisco, along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the strong cold front traversing the Gulf of=20
Mexico will cause gale-force northerly gap winds over the Gulf of
Tehuantepec beginning Thu afternoon. These winds are forecast to
continue at gale-force through Sat morning, then fresh to strong
through the remainder of the weekend. A deepening area of low=20
pressure over the Great Basin will force fresh to strong NW winds
over the Gulf of California this evening into early Thu. Fresh=20
to strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of=20
California Sun night through Mon night. Moderate NW swell west of
the Baja California peninsula will gradually subside over the=20
next couple of days. A larger set of NW swell may impact the=20
waters offshore of Baja California early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Moderate offshore winds are across the Papagayo region per a=20
recent scatterometer pass. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere. Seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail, except 4 to 6 ft offshore=20
of Ecuador in long period S-SW swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds in the Papagayo region
will pulse to fresh to strong starting early Fri through early=20
next week. Winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse to moderate to=20
fresh beginning Thu night through early Sun. Elsewhere, winds are
forecast to be moderate or weaker through the upcoming weekend.=20
W to NW swell from a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event will=20
begin impacting the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore zones Thu=20
night, continuing through Sat.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

As mentioned above, a 1029 mb high pressure system located north
of the area near 34N134W continues to dominate the weather=20
conditions across most of the tropical Pacific. Moderate to fresh
trades are noted north of the ITCZ and west of about 125W,=20
except in the far northwest corner of the area closer to the=20
high where winds are weaker. Seas across this region are mainly=20
6 to 9 ft in mixed NE wind waves and NW swell, locally to 10 ft=20
near 13N140W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere, in a mix of long=20
period SW and NW swell. Gentle to moderate trades prevail=20
elsewhere north of the ITCZ, with light to gentle winds south of=20
the ITCZ.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is=20
expected to weaken, allowing the trades to diminish, becoming=20
moderate or gentle over most of the High Seas by late this week=20
and into the upcoming weekend. Seas will subside somewhat as a
result of the diminishing winds. Later, a large extratropical=20
low is expected to move eastward while centered just north of=20
our 30N border this weekend, dragging an attendant cold front
across the northern waters. This system is forecast to bring=20
increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 120W
through the weekend, spreading east through early next week.

$$
Lewitsky


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