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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
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Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 19:24:43 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 231834
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/23 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.7 S / 75.9 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 994 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 40 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 65 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 06 UTC: 13.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 85

24H: 2022/03/24 18 UTC: 13.6 S / 74.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 250 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 100 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2022/03/25 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 295 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 315 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 17.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 345 SW: 150 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 75.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 370 SW: 220 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 23.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 435 SW: 220 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 220 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 79.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 270 SE: 315 SW: 195 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 150

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.0


DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, HALIMA'S CLOUD PATTERN HAS IMPROVED. THE
SURFACE CENTER HAS MOVED INTO THE CORE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH PARTICULARLY COLD TOPS. CONVECTION  HAS THEREFORE INCREASED
UPSHEAR ( EASTERLY SHEAR DECREASING ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS). THE
MICROWAVE IMAGES SHOW THIS IMPROVEMENT WITH STRONGER SIGNS OF
CURVATURE ( 1218Z AND 1108Z SSMIS) IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS EVOLUTION,
1655Z ASCAT PASS DATA AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES,
THE INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 40KT.

THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST HOURS STILL ON A
WESTERN TRACK. IT SHOULD START A TURN SOUTHWARD, INDEED, THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND A
WEAKNESS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CONFLICTING
STEERING FLOWS SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW MOTION  AT FIRST. ON FRIDAY, WHILE
THE WEAKNESS PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH, A MERIDIAN ORIENTED RIDGE BETWEEN
80TH AND 90TH WILL STRENGTHEN A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAKING THE
SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON A MERIDIAN COURSE. ALL THE GUIDANCE AGREE WITH
THIS SCENARIO. HOWEVER, THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF THIS TURN
SOUTHWARD IS STILL RATHER UNCERTAIN IN VIEW OF THE SPREAD AMONG THE
GUIDANCE. IN THE LONGER TERM, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA COULD MOVE EASTWARD. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF IFS AND GFS
DETERMINISTS.

UNTIL SATURDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE:
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE PROTECTING IT FROM VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS COULD BE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN TOMORROW BECAUSE OF THE LOW
SPEED OF MOVEMENT. HALIMA COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE INDUCED COOLING OF
THE UNDERLYING WATER. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD ALSO MODERATE THE INTENSIFICATION ON
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION
OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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