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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Australia: Name: Tropical Cyclone Charlotte 
Message-ID: <20220323192625.6B1381C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Wed, 23 Mar 2022 19:26:25 +0000
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AXAU01 APRF 231926
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1926 UTC 23/03/2022
Name: Tropical Cyclone Charlotte
Identifier: 28U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 19.9S
Longitude: 107.9E
Location Accuracy: within 35nm (65 km)
Movement Towards: southwest (222 deg)
Speed of Movement: 6 knots (11 km/h)
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots (95 km/h)
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots (130 km/h)
Central Pressure: 985 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 60 nm (110 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 75 nm (140 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 40 nm (75 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 30 nm (55 km)
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 
Radius of 64-knot winds:  nm ( km)
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm (45 km)
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W2.0/24HRS STT:W0.5/06HRS 
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 100 nm (185 km)
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
(UTC)        : degrees     :      nm  (km): knots(km/h): hPa
+06:  24/0000: 20.4S 107.5E:     040 (075):  045  (085):  988
+12:  24/0600: 21.0S 107.1E:     060 (110):  040  (075):  990
+18:  24/1200: 21.7S 106.8E:     070 (125):  040  (075):  990
+24:  24/1800: 22.9S 106.8E:     070 (130):  035  (065):  992
+36:  25/0600: 25.9S 108.0E:     080 (150):  035  (065):  994
+48:  25/1800: 28.5S 109.9E:     110 (205):  040  (075):  988
+60:  26/0600: 29.3S 111.9E:     145 (270):  040  (075):  986
+72:  26/1800: 28.9S 113.2E:     185 (345):  040  (075):  986
+96:  27/1800: 27.8S 111.9E:     265 (490):  035  (065):  989
+120: 28/1800: 29.1S 111.0E:     350 (650):  035  (065):  987
REMARKS:
Tropical cyclone Charlotte continues to weaken due strong mid-level shear and
dry air intrusion. The low level centre has become separated from the deep
convection. 

Charlotte is moving slowly to the southwest at around 6 knots. The low level
centre is disconnected from the deep convection. CIMSS is indicating northerly
shear of about 15 knots, however there are some stronger mid level winds near
and east of the centre that are proving more disruptive to the circulation than
the diagnosed shear may indicate. The edge of the deep convection is now
displaced more than 30 nautical mile southeast of the low level centre. 

Dvorak analysis: shear pattern with the low level centre around 0.5-0.75 degree
from the dense overcast DT=2.5, however there is some uncertainty in the
location the system. Strong weakening trend gives MET=3.5, PAT=3.0. FT=3.0
based on MET, and CI=3.5. CIMSS ADT has CI of 2.8, AiDT is at 44 kn 1-minute
wind. SATCON is 56 kn 1-minute wind. An ASCAT microwave pass at 1425UTC had
around 40 knots. Intensity set at 50 knots based on Dvorak CI. 

Charlotte is moving towards cooler SSTs as it tracks south-southwest under the
influence of a mid-upper high to the east-northeast. Dry air in the middle
levels of the atmosphere combined with increasing shear will cause Charlotte to
continue weakening, and the system will most likely be below tropical cyclone
intensity by late Thursday.  

An upper trough to the system's southwest will cause the system to accelerate
and track more southerly, then south-southeasterly through Friday. The system
is forecast to gradually lose its tropical characteristics and become
sub-tropical from overnight Thursday into Friday. Gales are forecast to persist
due to the interaction between the system and the upper trough as the low
tracks south-southeast. In the long-term, the system is likely to stall near
the west coast on the weekend, possibly causing wind and rain impacts for the
lower west coast of WA. 

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/0130 UTC. 


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