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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Moderate Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220324011710.3CF6D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2022 01:17:10 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 240056
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/10/20212022
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/24 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 75.6 E
(TWELVE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 992 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 95 NW: 75

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 85 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 14.8 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 205 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 16.6 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 240 SW: 140 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 215 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 335 SW: 240 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 215 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 295 SW: 280 NW: 240
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 175 NW: 150
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 65 NW: 75

120H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 23.8 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
FT=CI=3.5-


DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, HALIMA'S CLOUD PATTERN KEPT ON IMPROVING
WITH THE BUILDING OF A CURVED BAND IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
POSSIBLY THE APPEARANCE OF A WARM SPOT ON THE LATEST INFRARED IMAGES.
2328Z SSMIS PASS (AVAILABLE AFTER THE RUN TIME) CONFIRMS THE
SINGIFICANT IMPROVMENT OF THE INNER CORE. IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS
EVOLUTION AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES, THE
INTENSITY IS RAISED TO 45KT EVEN IF THIS COULD BE A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

THE SYSTEM HAS CLEARLY SLOWED DOWN DURING THE LAST HOURS. IT HAS
STARTED A TURN SOUTHWARD. INDEED, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE IS SHIFTING TO THE WEST AND A WEAKNESS SHOULD STRENGTHEN SOUTH
OF THE SYSTEM. THESE CONFLICTING STEERING FLOWS SHOULD FAVOR A SLOW
MOTION  AT FIRST. ON FRIDAY, WHILE THE WEAKNESS PERSISTS TO THE
SOUTH, A MERIDIAN ORIENTED RIDGE BETWEEN 80TH AND 90TH WILL
STRENGTHEN A NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW MAKING THE SYSTEM ACCELERATE ON
A MERIDIAN COURSE. IN THE LONGER TERM, WITH THE SHIFT OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA COULD MOVE
EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS OF IFS
AND GFS DETERMINISTS.

UNTIL SATURDAY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE OR INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE:
THE SYSTEM WILL TRANSIT OVER HIGH POTENTIAL WATERS, UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE PROTECTING IT FROM VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT UPPER
DIVERGENCE IN THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS COULD BE TEMPORARILY SLOWED DOWN  TODAY BECAUSE OF THE SLOW
MOTION. HALIMA COULD BE IMPACTED BY THE INDUCED COOLING OF THE
UNDERLYING WATERS. HOWEVER THE OBSEVRED RECENT TREND DO NO PLEAD FOR
THIS SCENARIO AND THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE MORE RAPID THAN
CURRENTLY FORECAST. OTHER PROCESSES SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD ALSO MODERATE THE INTENSIFICATION ON
SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM
THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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