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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220324065833.5CBCF1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2022 06:58:33 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 240656
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 11/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/24 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 75.2 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 988 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/24 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/25 06 UTC: 14.5 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 195 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 270 SW: 150 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 20.0 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 22.0 S / 76.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 230 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 23.5 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 195 SW: 250 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 150 NW: 110

120H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 23.2 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 140 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 120 NW: 75

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CURVED BAND CLOUD PATTERN OF HALIMA
HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE AND MIGRATES OVER THE LAST FEW MOMENTS INTO
A BAND EYE ON THE VISIBLE IMAGES. THE SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS OF 0131UTC
SUGGESTS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM CLASSIFICATION WHILE THE 0402UTC
ASCAT SWATH UNDERESTIMATE A FEW 50KT THAT CAN BE ESTIMATED VIA THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS. AT 00UTC, HALIMA IS THUS CLASSIFIED AS A STRONG
TROPICAL STORM IN A PHASE OF NOTABLE INTENSIFICATION.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS EXPLAINING A SLOW TRACK
OVER THE NEXT 24-36H. WITH THE SHIFT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, THE STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO EXTENDING ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM,
HALIMA WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH AND ACCELERATE FROM SATURDAY.
ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO. ON A LONGER TIME
SCALE, HALIMA IS SLIDING SOUTH OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, HALIMA
COULD TURN EASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY HALIMA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THIS CONTEXT
WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY. INDEED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPMENT TO THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE ON WATERS WITH
SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL, UNDER THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE PROTECTING
IT FROM THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FASTER THAN
ENVISAGED IN THE SHORT TERM. OTHER PHENOMENA SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE
OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS ON SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER
TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR,
WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION
OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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