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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2022 10:37:35 +0000
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996 
AWIO20 FMEE 241035

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/24 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 and WTIO30 011/10 on Severe Tropical Storm HALIMA issued at 06UTC and following.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin's Near-Equatorial Trough (NET) pattern that had settled a few days ago is now strongly modulated by an Equatorial-Rossby wave train and to a lesser extent a Mixed Rossby-Gravity wave whose maximum activity matches with severe tropical storm HALIMA's location, around 75E. This induces an additional meridional flow component near the equator between 65E and 85E, resulting in a trans-equatorial north-westerly flow converging towards HALIMA (which is a deviated equatorial westerly flow and not a monsoon flow). Further west and east remains a rather poorly defined NET pattern in connection with a remnant westerly wind component near the equator, with a NET axis located around 7-8S between 50E and 65E and around 12S east of 85E. The main convective activity is concentrated firstly around system HALIMA and secondly in the convergence areas along the edge of the NET.

Severe Tropical Storm HALIMA :

Position at 09UTC : 13.3S / 74.9E

Movement : South-West 6 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10min : 55 kt

Minimum central pressure : 986 hPa
For more information on this system, see bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Elsewhere across the basin, no area has a potential for tropical cyclogenesis over the next 5 days.

No other tropical storm is expected to develop within the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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