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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220324125636.D9E4A1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2022 12:56:36 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 241252
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 12/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/24 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.3 S / 74.4 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 985 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 185 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 110 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 35 SW: 40 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/25 00 UTC: 13.7 S / 74.2 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 165 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 14.7 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 16.3 S / 74.5 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 220 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 45

48H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 18.7 S / 75.0 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 65 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 250 SW: 185 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 55 NW: 55

72H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 185 SW: 155 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 23.4 S / 79.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 220 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 120

120H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 22.7 S / 81.9 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 175 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0-

THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS FLUCTUATED OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. AT FIRST
SHOWING A BEGINNING OF AN EYE, HALIMA HAS MIGRATED TO A CENTER
CONFIGURATION EMBEDDED IN THE MASS. THE CENTER IS LOCATED IN THE
SOUTHEAST SECTOR OF THE MOST MARKED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE
LOCALIZATION IN SUCH A CONFIGURATION REMAINS DELICATE BUT THE SSMIS
MICROWAVE DATA OF 1055UTC ALLOW TO PLACE THE CENTER ON A MORE WESTERN
POSITION. IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE DVORAK ANALYSIS OF 4.0- ALLOWS
TO ESTIMATE WINDS OF 55KT.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRACK: HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONFLICTING DIRECTIONAL FLOWS EXPLAINING A SLOW TRACK
WITH TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WITH
THE SHIFT OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO EXTENDING ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA WILL TAKE A TRACK TO THE SOUTH
AND ACCELERATE FROM SATURDAY. ALL THE GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SCENARIO. ON A LONGER TIME SCALE, HALIMA IS SLIDING SOUTH OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, HALIMA COULD TURN EASTWARD. THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE SHOULD TILT PROGRESSIVELY ON THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE
OF HALIMA INDUCING A NORTH-EASTERN COMPONENT IN THE TRACK, PRECURSOR
OF A POSSIBLE REROUTING ON A LONGER TIME SCALE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY HALIMA IS SHOWING SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THIS CONTEXT
WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY. INDEED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD
BE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPMENT TO THE STAGE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE OR
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE ON WATERS WITH
SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL, UNDER THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE PROTECTING
IT FROM THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. THE INTENSIFICATION COULD BE FASTER THAN
ENVISAGED IN THE SHORT TERM, UNLESS THE SYSTEM SLOWS DOWN ITS TRACK A
LITTLE MORE, AS THE OCEANIC POTENTIAL MAY WEAKEN. OTHER PHENOMENA
SUCH AS THE OCCURRENCE OF EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES COULD ALSO
TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ON SATURDAY. FROM SATURDAY
ONWARDS, THE ASCENT OF AN UPPER TROUGH FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
STRENGTHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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