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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Thu, 24 Mar 2022 19:43:59 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 241943
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Thu Mar 24 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale force gap winds, N at 25
to 35 kt, are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gales will=20
prevail into Sat night, peaking around 40 kt tonight through Fri.
The gap winds are being caused by high pressure building south=20
through the western Gulf of Mexico. Seas currently up to 10 ft=20
will increase to 12 to 14 ft tonight through Fri night. As high=20
pressure weakens and moves east, winds and seas will decrease for
the start of next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas=20
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!pxAJbIxE8dqfEdMQbFpbBa_RJOhQ1MaaJ6jte6fB6ReTGd76MjPcUWq1QxZbvEyaU=
k7aerqJ$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends Panama near 07N79W to 05N94W to=20
04N109W. The ITCZ then stretches from 04N109W to 06N125W to=20
beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection=20
is present from 02S to 08N and between 81W and 110W. Scattered=20
moderate convection is seen from 02N to 09N and between 110W and
130W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see above in the Special Feature for details about a Gulf
of Tehuantepec Gale Warning.

Fresh NW winds are ongoing in the central and southern Gulf of=20
California as high pressure builds south. Across the northern=20
Gulf, mainly gentle winds prevail. Seas in the area of fresh winds
average 4 to 6 ft, with 2 to 4 ft seas elsewhere in the Gulf. To
the west of Baja California, mainly gentle N winds prevail with=20
seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly gentle to=20
moderate winds prevail, with locally fresh N winds occurring=20
offshore Cabo Corrientes. Seas average 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds in the Gulf of=20
California will diminish tonight. Fresh to strong southerly=20
winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California Sun night=20
through Mon night ahead of a cold front. A large set of NW swell=20
is likely to impact the waters offshore of Baja California early
next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Mainly fresh E winds continue to affect the Papagayo region to=20
88W, with mainly moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama.=20
Elsewhere, gentle winds prevail north of the equator, while=20
gentle to moderate S to SE winds are found south of the equator.
Seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent, except 4-6 ft offshore of Ecuador=20
in long period S-SW swell.

For the forecast, Caribbean trades will continue to cause winds
in the Papagayo region to increase to fresh to strong starting=20
tonight and continuing through early next week. Winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat through
Sat night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or=20
weaker into early next week. W to NW swell from Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec gap winds will begin impacting the Guatemala and El=20
Salvador offshore zones tonight, then continue into Sunday=20
morning.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

The high pressure system of 1026 mb remains positioned near=20
33N132W, just north of our forecast area, and continues to=20
dominate the region. The pressure gradient between the=20
subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is=20
causing moderate to fresh trades, primarily N of 10N and W of=20
125W. Seas in the area described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker anticyclonic winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to continue to weaken, allowing the trades to diminish. Moderate
to gentle winds will prevail over most of the High Seas late=20
this week through the weekend. Seas will also decrease somewhat=20
as result of the diminishing winds. Later, a robust extratropical
low is expected to move eastward while centered just north of=20
our 30N border this weekend, dragging an attendant cold front=20
across the northern waters. This system is forecast to bring=20
increasing winds and building seas north of 25N west of 120W=20
through the weekend, spreading east through early next week.

$$
KONARIK


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