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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 10 (halima) 
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Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 00:26:06 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 250015
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.5 S / 73.7 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 4 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 0.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 969 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 185 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 55 SE: 110 SW: 150 NW: 75
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 85 SW: 90 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/25 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 175 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 205 SW: 150 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 130 SW: 100 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 18.0 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 20.5 S / 75.3 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 205 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 95 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 22.3 S / 76.5 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 230 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 185 SW: 150 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 78.0 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 260 SW: 215 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 195 SW: 150 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 23.7 S / 81.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 215 SW: 175 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 120

120H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 22.1 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE PATTERN OF THE CENTER EMBEDDED IN THE
MASS, HAS PROGRESSIVELY IMPROVED, WITH INCREASINGLY COLD TOPS, AND AN
INCREASE IN THE SIZE AND DEFINITION OF THE CDO, REFLECTING THE
INTENSIFICATION OF THE SYSTEM. ELECTRICAL ACTIVITY HAS ALSO INCREASED
NEAR THE CENTER. AN EYE IS PRESENT IN 37 AND 89GHZ ON THE LAST AMSR2
PASS OF 2029Z, AND TEMPORARILY ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES IN IR CHANNEL.

NO CHANGE IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY: HALIMA CONTINUES TO BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS EXPLAINING A SLOW
TRAJECTORY WITH TEMPORARY FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION. WITH THE SHIFT
OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE WEST, THE
STRENGTHENING OF THE EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH ALSO EXTENDING ON
THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA WILL SOON TAKE A CLEARER
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE SOUTH BY ACCELERATING FROM SATURDAY. ALL THE
GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO.
IN THE LONGER TERM, AS HALIMA SLIDES FURTHER SOUTH OF THE NE RIDGE,
HALIMA'S TRAJECTORY WILL TURN EASTWARD. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT ONTO THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF HALIMA
INDUCING A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT IN THE TRACK, PRECURSOR TO A
POSSIBLE REROUTING ON A LONGER TIME SCALE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO A CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

CURRENTLY HALIMA CONTINUES TO SHOW SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND THIS
CONTEXT WILL LAST UNTIL SATURDAY. INDEED, THE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR A DEVELOPMENT TO THE STAGE OF
INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE: THE SYSTEM WILL CIRCULATE ON WATERS WITH
SUFFICIENT ENERGY POTENTIAL, UNDER THE RIDGE OF ALTITUDE PROTECTING
IT FROM THE VERTICAL SHEAR AND WITH AN EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE.  THE OCCURRENCE OF REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF THE
EYEWALL COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS ON SATURDAY. FROM
SATURDAY ONWARDS, THE UPWELLING OF A SOUTHWEST TROUGH SHOULD FAVOUR A
CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTHWEST SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO A
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY INTRUSION OF DRY AIR OVER THE CENTER.

HALIMA IS NOT EXPECTED TO POSE ANY THREAT TO THE INHABITED AREAS
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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