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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220325073811.691BF1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 07:38:11 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 250641
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.6 S / 73.6 E
(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 944 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 405 SW: 260 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/25 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 95 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 16.4 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 175 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 18.6 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 335 SW: 205 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.6 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 305 SW: 195 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 130 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 75
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 45

60H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 350 SW: 230 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 195 SW: 140 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

72H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 22.1 S / 78.6 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 250 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 175 SW: 140 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 82.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 130 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 95 NW: 100

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, AN EYE PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CLEAR
IN BOTH INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGERY, REVEALING A PERFECTLY CIRCULAR
AND SMALL EYE. MICROWAVE IMAGES SINCE THURSDAY NIGHT SHOW A VERY
SOLID AND COMPACT CENTRAL CONVECTIVE CORE, WITH VIGOROUS CONVECTION
ALL AROUND THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS. SUBJECTIVE EIR DVORAK
ANALYSIS AVERAGED OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS REACH 6.0, THUS THE CYCLONE'S
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 100 KT AT 06Z. THIS INDICATES THAT RAPID
INTENSIFICATION HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE YESTERDAY. MOREOVER, BASED ON
VARIOUS OBJECTIVE DATA AVAILABLE SINCE THURSDAY 12Z (SAR DATA AT
1325Z SHOWING WINDS EXCEEDING THE CYCLONE STAGE, 0045Z SMAP PASS WITH
WINDS AT 91 KT, ROBUST STRUCTURE OF THE SYSTEM'S INNER CORE ON
MICROWAVE IMAGERY), WE CAN ESTIMATE THAT TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WAS
PROBABLY REACHED FROM THURSDAY 12Z AND THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE
STAGE COULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED THIS FRIDAY AT 00Z). THE
BEST-TRACK WILL BE SOON MODIFIED ACCORDINGLY.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CYCLONE
HAS BEGUN ITS SOUTHWARD TURN AFTER HAVING HAD A VERY SLOW AND
HESITATING MOVEMENT LAST NIGHT IN CONNECTION WITH CONTRADICTORY
STEERING FLOWS. FROM THIS FRIDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS
IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST
EXTENDING ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, HALIMA WILL
CONTINUE ON A SOUTHWARD TRACK, INITIALLY SLOW TODAY AND THEN
ACCELERATING FROM SATURDAY. FROM SUNDAY, WHILE HALIMA SLIDES SOUTH OF
THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL TURN EASTWARD. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A
NORTH-EASTERN COMPONENT IN THE TRACK FROM TUESDAY, BUT WITH STRONG
DISPERSION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
REMAINS CLOSE TO A COMPROMISE AMONG THE BEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA WILL REMAIN IN VERY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS UNTIL SATURDAY (LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HIGH SST).
MOREOVER, WITH A MOVEMENT THAT ACCELERATES A LITTLE THIS FRIDAY, THE
CYCLONE SHOULD TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE AVAILABLE OCEANIC HEAT
CONTENT. ONLY THE OCCURRENCE OF POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES
COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS UNTIL SATURDAY.
CONSEQUENTLY, WE CANNOT EXCLUDE THAT THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE REACHED IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS (THE
PRESENT FORECAST REACHES 115 KT BUT IT COULD BE EVEN MORE). FROM
SATURDAY EVENING, THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD
FAVOUR CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING BY DRY AIR INTRUSION AND ALSO BECAUSE OF A
LESS IMPORTANT OCEANIC POTENTIAL AROUND 23S. NEVERTHELESS THIS
WEAKENING COULD BE TEMPORARY AS SHOWN BY SOME MODELS WHICH SUGGEST
FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WHEN THE SYSTEM TURNS NORTHWESTWARDS AROUND
TUESDAY, FINDING WARM SST AGAIN AND A LESS SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
HOWEVER, THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
REMAINS VERY UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

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