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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 08:24:57 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 250824
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Northerly gale force winds of
30 to 40 kt are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gales are
forecast to continue through Sat morning, before diminishing to
near gale Sat afternoon and to fresh to strong Sun. Seas are=20
currently peaking at 13 to 15 ft and will diminish to 11 to 12 ft
this afternoon. Winds and seas will decrease for the start of=20
next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by
the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!rszF5dcpqKLRGoNOe5959vyzAzd40FqJfhIkztIJJJz6V3wdqid10uWrF3SJglbnw=
gteFoBT$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough extends from the Panama/Colombia border near=20
07N78W to 04N83W to 05N100W. The ITCZ extends from 04N104W to
05N114W to 05N135W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated=20
strong convection is present from 01S to 08N between 77W and
118W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gentle NW winds are in the Gulf of California with seas of 1 to 2
ft. ASCAT shows moderate NW to N winds to the west of Baja=20
California, where seas are likely 5 to 6 ft. Elsewhere offshore=20
Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are occurring, with
4 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop=20
in the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon night=20
ahead of a cold front. The front will bring in a large set of NW=20
swell to the waters west of Baja California early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

ASCAT overnight showed fresh E winds offshore the Papagayo region
east of 88W. Moderate to fresh N winds are likely occurring in=20
the Gulf of Panama, north of 05N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Seas are averaging 4-6 ft, except offshore Guatemala, where 6-8=20
ft seas prevail in W to NW swell, due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
gap wind event.

For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will continue to
pulse to fresh to strong through early next week. Winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night.=20
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early
next week. W to NW swell from an ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap
wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore zone=20
today through Sat.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 33N130W, just north of=20
our forecast area. The pressure gradient between the subtropical=20
ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is causing moderate
to locally fresh trades, primarily from 07N to 17N and W of=20
127W. Seas in the area described are 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate=20
or weaker winds and 5-7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to continue to weaken through tonight, allowing the trades to=20
diminish. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over most of the=20
Pacific waters through the weekend. A robust extratropical low=20
is expected to move eastward while centered well north of our 30N
border this weekend, dragging an attendant cold front across the
northern waters. This system is forecast to bring fresh to=20
strong winds and building seas north of 25N west of 120W Sat=20
night through Mon night, spreading east through early next week.=20
Seas are forecast to peak at 12-18 ft Sun night through Mon.
Northerly swell from this system will propagate southward across
the area, reaching 10N by Tue night.

$$
Hagen


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