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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 11:50:48 +0000
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791 
AWIO20 FMEE 251148

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/25 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 and WTIO30 015/10 on Intense Tropical Cyclone HALIMA issued at 06UTC and following.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


The basin pattern is modulated not only by the presence of the intense tropical cyclone HALIMA positioned around 13.9oS / 73.5oE at 09 UTC, but also by a significant wave activity, linked to the transit of an equatorial Rossby wave train over the extreme north of over our AoR.

This particular and temporary pattern reinforces the converging of the westerly flow from the northern hemisphere into the north of our basin between 50oE and 80oE and up to the tropical low-pressure system HALIMA.

The near equatorial trough (NET) is thus found on both sides of HALIMA:

- between 50oE and 64oE, undulating towards 10oS.

- between 85oE to the eastern edge of our AoR, undulating between 13oS and 11oS.

The main convective activity is concentrated around the intense tropical cyclone HALIMA, as well as in the northwesterly flow at the northern edge of the NET. It is also present to a lesser extent in the slowing of the trade wind flow, on the western edge of the NET, not far from the northeast coast of Madagascar.

Intense tropical cyclone HALIMA :

Position at 09UTC : 13.9oS / 73.5oE

Movement : South-South-Westerly at 5 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes: 105 kt

Estimated minimum central pressure: 940 hPa
For more information on this system, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO30 issued at 06UTC and following.

Elsewhere in the basin, there are no areas with cyclogenesis potential for the next 5 days.

No other tropical storm is expected to develop within the next 5 days.


NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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