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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220325130905.5A2641C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 13:09:05 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 251230
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2 S / 73.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/D 1.5/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 75 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 165 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 17.7 S / 73.9 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 325 SW: 270 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 175 SW: 155 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 45

36H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 165 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

48H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 75.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 325 SW: 280 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 175 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 77.2 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 195 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.7 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 315 SW: 285 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 205 SW: 185 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 85 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 315 SW: 295 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 205 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 95 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 82.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 315 SW: 305 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 240 SW: 215 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, HALIMA'S EYE PATTERN HAS IMPROVED A BIT
MORE THE WELL-DEFINED EYE'S CENTRAL TEMPERATURE HAS KEPT WARMING AND
IS SURROUNDED BY INTENSE CONVECTION WITHIN A FAIRLY CIRCULAR
STRUCTURE. THE 0843Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE PASS CONFIRMS A VERY COMPACT AND
WELL CONSOLIDATED INNER CORE. THE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS IS
ESTIMATED AT ONLY 6 NM. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EIR EYE
PATTERN YIELDS A 3-HOUR-AVERAGED DT OF 6.0+, HENCE AN INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF 105 KT. MOREOVER, THE BEST-TRACK HAS BEEN UPDATED
AFTER-HAND FROM THE 24TH AT 06Z TO THE 25TH AT 00Z WITH INCREASED
INTENSITIES, AS ANNOUNCED IN THE PREVIOUS RSMC BULLETIN.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS CONFIRMED IN
THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, ALSO EXTENDING ALONG
THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN FLANK. THIS MOVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY
BY TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. FROM SUNDAY, WHILE HALIMA WILL
SLIDE SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL MAKE AN
EASTWARD TURN. THIS RIDGE SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, INDUCING A MORE OR LESS IMPORTANT
NORTH-EAST ORIENTATION FROM TUESDAY, BUT WITH VERY STRONG DISPERSION
IN ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC FORECASTS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A MEDIAN SCENARIO.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA REMAINS IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL SATURDAY (WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HIGH SST). WHILE THE CYCLONE'S
MOVEMENT ACCELERATES, IT SHOULD TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE
AVAILABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THE SHORT TERM, ONLY A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
CONSEQUENTLY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT WILL GET NEAR OR MAYBE REACH
THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST
SHOULD FAVOUR INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD
TO MORE OR LESS RAPID WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION
OF DRY AIR, ALTHOUGH ITS EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS WEAKENING
COULD BE LIMITED OR TEMPORARY AS SOME MODELS SUGGEST A FURTHER SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION FROM TUESDAY THANKS TO POSSIBLE DECREASING WIND SHEAR
AND SUFFICIENT REMNANT OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST
AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS NEVERTHELESS VERY
UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

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