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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 16:05:04 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 251604
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale-force=20
winds of 30 to 40 kt are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.=20
Gales are forecast to continue through Sat morning, before=20
diminishing to near gale early on Sat n and to fresh to strong=20
Sun. Wave heights are currently in the peaking at 10-14 ft and=20
will diminish to 10-12 ft this afternoon. Winds and seas will=20
decrease for the start of next week. Please read the latest High=20
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!pfTIevXIEWr6XSyQlobCsxYsWRY8ju_BIVEl2rwx9Uu9ZOpJQR7oRHyatJAsbesZQ=
AWQlVES$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough axis extends from the Panama/Colombia border=20
near 07N78W to 05N86W to 06N94W to 05N103W, where latest=20
scatterometer indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ
to 03N117W to 06N128W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm south of trough between
87W-90W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 78W-79W,
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 110W-115W and between=20
138W-140W, within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 114W-118W and=20
within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 103W-110W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Gentle NW winds are in the Gulf of California with seas of 1-2=20
ft. Latest ASCAT data shows moderate northwest to north winds to=20
the west of Baja California, where wave heights are in the=20
5-6 ft range. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle=20
variable winds are occurring along with wave heights of 4-5 ft.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop=20
in the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon night=20
ahead of a cold front. The front will bring in a large set of NW=20
swell to the waters west of Baja California early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Overnight ASCAT data passes showed fresh east winds offshore the
Papagayo region east of 88W. Moderate to fresh north winds are=20
likely occurring in the Gulf of Panama, north of 05N. Gentle=20
winds remain elsewhere. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range,=20
except offshore Guatemala, where 6-8 ft wave heights continue
west to northwest swell due to a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind=20
event.

For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will continue to
pulse to fresh to strong through early next week. Winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night.=20
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early
next week. West to northwest swell from an ongoing Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala=20
offshore zone today through Sat.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area=20
near 34N129W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical=20
ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is=20
resulting in moderate to locally fresh trade winds, primarily=20
from 07N to 17N and west of 127W. Wave heights in this area are=20
in the 7-8 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are=20
present along with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to continue to weaken through tonight, allowing the trades to=20
diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over most=20
of the Pacific waters through the weekend. A robust extratropical
low is expected to move eastward while centered well north of=20
our 30N border this weekend. This low will drag an attendant cold
front across the northern waters. This system is forecast to=20
bring fresh to strong winds and building seas north of 25N west=20
of 120W Sat night through Mon night, spreading east through early
next week. Wave heights are forecast to reach the range of 12-18
ft Sun night through Mon. Northerly swell from this system will=20
propagate southward across the area, possibly reaching 10N by Tue
night.

$$
Aguirre


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