Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220325185022.62C8B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 18:50:22 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-To: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Sender: wx-tropl-request@lists.illinois.edu
Archived-At: <https://lists.illinois.edu/lists/arcsearch_id/wx-tropl/2022-03/20220325185022.62C8B1C0EEF%40weather.cod.edu>
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1648234225-120232-62"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1648234225-120232-62
Content-Type: text/plain

WTIO30 FMEE 251818
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/25 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8 S / 73.4 E
(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 6 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.0/S 0.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 939 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 105 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 06 UTC: 16.6 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 115 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 155 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 45

24H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 18.7 S / 74.4 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 285 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 76.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 305 SW: 205 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

60H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.5 S / 79.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 65 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.9 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 20.2 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 60 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=6.0+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE STRUCTURE OF THE HALIMA SYSTEM
REMAINED STATIONARY WITH AN EYE CONFIGURATION. DVORAK ANALYSES REMAIN
ON AN INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE DESPITE A SLIGHT DEGRADATION IN THE
LAST HOUR. THE SSMIS AND GMI MICROWAVE PASSES ARE CONSISTENT WITH THE
INFRARED LOCALIZATION. THE EXTENSIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED WITH THE
1700Z ASCAT PASS ESSENTIALLY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE (SYSTEM AT THE
LIMIT OF THE SWATH). MOREOVER THE INTENSITY ESTIMATED AT 105KT BY THE
DVORAK ANALYSIS IS CONFIRMED BY THE SMAP DATA FROM 1256Z WITH A VALUE
OF 98KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE SYSTEM'S SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT IS CONFIRMED IN
THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST, ALSO EXTENDING ALONG
THE SYSTEM'S EASTERN FLANK. THIS MOVEMENT WILL ACCELERATE ON SATURDAY
BY TAKING A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT. FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA MOVING SOUTH
OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE TRACK WILL TURN EASTWARD. IN SPITE
OF A STRONG DISPERSION OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS, THE MORE MARKED
DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO FAVOR THE
SCENARIO OF A TRACK TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA REMAINS IN A VERY CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT
UNTIL SATURDAY (WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH A
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, HIGH SST). WHILE THE CYCLONE'S
MOVEMENT ACCELERATES, IT SHOULD TAKE BETTER ADVANTAGE OF THE
AVAILABLE OCEANIC POTENTIAL. IN THE SHORT TERM, ONLY A POSSIBLE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD TEMPER THE INTENSIFICATION PROCESS.
CONSEQUENTLY, WE CANNOT RULE OUT THAT IT WILL GET NEAR OR MAYBE REACH
THE STAGE OF VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN
IN THE NEXT 24-36H, THE APPROACH OF A SOUTH-WEST TROUGH SHOULD FAVOUR
A CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WEST SHEAR. A RAPID AND CONTINUOUS
WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR IS THUS
POSSIBLE, BUT THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS WEAKENING COULD BE
LIMITED OR TEMPORARY AS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS
IS POSSIBLE WITH A POSSIBLE DECREASE OF THE SHEAR. THE FORECAST OF
INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS NEVERTHELESS VERY
UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

------------=_1648234225-120232-62
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1648234225-120232-62--