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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220325220601.A2B6D1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Fri, 25 Mar 2022 22:06:01 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 252205
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Fri Mar 25 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale-force=20
winds of 30-40 kt are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These=20
conditions are forecast to diminish to near gale force early on=20
Sun and to fresh to strong Sun afternoon. Wave heights=20
currently in the range of 9-13 ft will diminish slightly Sat
and further on Sun. wave heights will continue to subside=20
going into the beginning of next week. Please read the latest=20
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at=20
website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2=
.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!pcvbp482pLFNuV2s6XzJi6Vj2iStETfmABMjGi64eNzJaMOhCO-dfx2bp=
6i_qGEmWOM2pb68$  for more=20
details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough axis extends from the Panama/Colombia border=20
near 07N78W to 09N88W to 06N94W to low pressure of 1011 mb=20
near 03N98W and to 03N101W, where latest scatterometer data=20
indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N116W to 07N129W=20
to 07N135W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection=20
is noted from 01N to 05N between 84W-92W within 180 nm south of=20
trough between 87W- 90W and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ=20
between 104W-108W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details about a
Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

Winds are light and variable in the Gulf of California, except=20
for the central section where winds are gentle from the=20
northwest. Wave heights in the Gulf are pretty low of 1-2 ft,=20
except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of
2-3 ft. Latest ASCAT data shows gentle northwest to north winds=20
offshore Baja California, where wave heights are in the 4-6 ft=20
range due to a northwest swell. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly
light to gentle variable winds are present along with wave=20
heights of 4-5 ft due to northwest swell mixed with south swell.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop=20
in the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon night=20
ahead of a cold front associated to low pressure system that=20
will be impacting southern California. The front will usher in a
large set of northwest swell to the waters west of Baja=20
California early next week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Afternoon ASCAT data passes depict an area of moderate to fresh=20
northeast to east winds to the wests of the Gulf of Papagayo
region from 08N to 11N between 88W-93W. The ASCAT data also=20
has gentle to moderate north winds in the Gulf of Panama, and=20
an area of moderate to fresh north to northeast winds downstream
of the Gulf from 03N to 06N between 79W-81W. Generally, gentle
winds remain elsewhere. Wave heights are in the 4-6 ft range due
a south swell, except mixed with northwest to north swell=20
generated by Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event north of about=20
07N. Higher wave heights of 6-9 ft due to a northwest swell that=20
also originates from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event are
offshore Guatemala.

For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will continue to
pulse to fresh to strong through early next week. Winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night.=20
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early
next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore=20
zone through Sun night.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1022 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area=20
near 34N128W. The pressure gradient between the subtropical=20
ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is=20
resulting in moderate to locally fresh trade winds, primarily=20
from 08N to 16N and west of about 128W and from 07N to 15N=20
between 117W-128W. Wave heights with these winds are in the
6-8 ft range, with the highest wave west of 137W. The 8 ft=20
wave heights are forecast to subside to just below 8 ft late=20
tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along=20
with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to weaken through Sat night as it shifts east-southeastward=20
in response to an approaching cold front. This trend will allow
for the trade winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds=20
will prevail over most of the Pacific waters through the=20
weekend. The cold front will be tied to a rather robust=20
extratropical low that is expected to move eastward well
to the north of our 30N this weekend. The low will drag the
cold front across the extreme northwest waters Sat night,
then to a position from near 30N135W TO 28N140W late Sat=20
night and from near 30N129W to 28N133W to 25N140W by early=20
Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the=20
front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights=20
to 8 ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow
in behind the front along with wave heights of 8 to 10 ft=20
late Sat night, building to 8 to 12 ft on Sun afternoon. Higher=20
wave heights of 11-15 ft are expected north of 29N on Sun=20
afternoon. Northerly swell from this system will propagate=20
southward across the area, possibly reaching to near 08N by
Tue night.

$$
Aguirre


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