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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Intense Tropical Cyclone 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220326003734.AE3AB1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 00:37:34 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 260007
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/10/20212022
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.5 S / 73.5 E
(FIFTEEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 945 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 95 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 315 SW: 260 NW: 110
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 140 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 65 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 900 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 105 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 250 SW: 155 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 75.4 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 150 SW: 110 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 76.7 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 280 SW: 220 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 155 SW: 140 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 65 SW: 75 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.2 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 260 SW: 155 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 30

60H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.3 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 195 SW: 165 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 35 SW: 55 NW: 35

72H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.1 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.4 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 185 SW: 140 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 95 SW: 75 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 35 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 35

120H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 240 SW: 165 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 40 NW: 40

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=5.0 CI=5.5+

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALIMA HAS
LOST ITS EYE CONFIGURATION TO A CDO CONFIGURATION. THE PERIPHERAL
CONVECTION HAS BECOME MORE ORGANIZED AND COULD EXPLAIN THE WEAKENING
OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE AND
ASCAT DATA, INFRARED IMAGES WERE USED TO DETERMINE THE POSITION OF
THE CENTER. IN DVORAK ANALYSIS, THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED AT 5.0, SO
A CI OF 5.5+ WITH WINDS OF 95KT. IT IS CONFIRMED BY THE OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES (ADT AND AIDT) AND BY THE SATCON.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, THE MOVEMENT OF THE CYCLONE TOWARDS THE SOUTH IS
MAINTAINED IN THE SHORT TERM UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND WITH THE
CONSOLIDATION OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST,
EXTENDING ALSO ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. THIS MOVEMENT WILL
ACCELERATE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS BY TAKING A SOUTH-EAST COMPONENT.
FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA SLIDING SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, THE
TRACK WILL TURN EASTWARD. IN SPITE OF A STRONG DISPERSION OF THE LONG
RANGE MODELS, THE MORE MARKED DEVELOPMENT OF A RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
THE SYSTEM SEEMS TO FAVOUR THE SCENARIO OF A TRACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, HALIMA REMAINS IN VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM (WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR, STRONG ALTITUDE
DIVERGENCE WITH A POLAR COAST EVACUATION CHANNEL). AFTER FLUCTUATIONS
IN INTENSITY DURING THE NIGHT, HALIMA SHOULD BE ABLE TO REINTENSIFY
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER, THIS INTENSIFICATION IS REVISED
SLIGHTLY DOWNWARDS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THEN IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH FROM THE SOUTH-WEST SHOULD
FAVOR A CLEAR STRENGTHENING OF THE NORTH-WEST SHEAR. A RAPID AND
CONTINUOUS WEAKENING ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE INTRUSION OF DRY AIR
IS THUS ENVISAGED, BUT THE EXTENT REMAINS UNCERTAIN. THIS WEAKENING
COULD BE LIMITED OR TEMPORARY AS A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION FROM
TUESDAY ONWARDS IS LIKELY WITH A DECREASE OF THE SHEAR. THE FORECAST
OF INTENSITY AT THE END OF THE PERIOD REMAINS NEVERTHELESS VERY
UNCERTAIN.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR INHABITED LANDS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

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