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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220326031745.AF91F1C0081@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 03:17:45 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260317
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0230 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale-force=20
winds of 30-40 kt are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, behind
2 cold fronts that have recently swept across the Gulf of Mexico.
Peak seas are near 12 ft downwind of Tehuantepec. Winds are=20
forecast to diminish to below gale force early on Sun and to=20
fresh to strong Sun afternoon. Wave heights will diminish=20
slightly Sat and further on Sun. Please read the latest High=20
Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!pSK5UImTvaD1HVB5juIVS5Z8BP5PQevBFkTz7B8Ni7tbjRDQpYfIu7o-ke5AMZNdu=
QNYVXrN$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough axis extends from 10N74.5W to 07N80W to 08.5N85W
to low pressure 1009 mb near 03.5N98.5W. The ITCZ begins from
03N101W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast of Ecuador from
02.5N to 01N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is=20
noted S of the trough to 01N between 82W and 92W. Widely
scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within=20
120 nm either side of the ITCZ between 108W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A broad and weak high pressure ridge prevails across the offshore
and regional waters tonight. The associated pressure gradient is
yielding moderate NW winds across the waters offshore of Baja
Norte, and light winds across the remaining waters of Baja
southward to 18N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell except 6-7 ft
offshore of Baja Norte. Light NNW winds prevail in the Gulf of=20
California. Seas are generally fair in the Gulf at 1-2 ft,=20
except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of=20
2-3 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle=20
variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in=20=20
NW swell mixed with S swell.

Gap winds across Tehuantepec extend well offshore to 12.5N98W and
are producing a zone of strong winds about 120 nm wide, while the
gale force winds reach as far as offshore as 14.5N95.5W. Seas of
8 ft and greater cover an even larger area and extend offshore=20
to 09N between 93.5W and 100.5W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly winds will develop=20
in the northern Gulf of California Sun night through Mon night=20
ahead of a cold front associated to low pressure system that=20
will be impacting southern California. The front will usher in a
large set of northwest swell to the waters west of Baja=20
California early next week. Otherwise, generally tranquil marine
conditions will persist across the Baja offshore waters through
early Mon before NW swell associated with the cold front begins
to arrive. Conditions across Tehuantepec will improve
significantly Sun afternoon.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Afternoon ASCAT data passes depicted an area of moderate to=20
fresh northeast to east winds to the west of the Gulf of=20
Papagayo region from 08N to 11N between 88W-93W. The ASCAT data=20
also showed gentle to moderate north winds in the Gulf of Panama,
and an area of moderate to fresh north to northeast winds=20
downstream of the Gulf from 03N to 06N between 79W-81W.=20
Generally, gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Wave heights this=20
evening remain in the 4-6 ft range in S swell. The exception to=20
this is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated
from the strong to gale force gap winds are producing NW wind=20
swell, producing seas of 6 to 9 ft and dominate the waters W of=20
90W.

For the forecast, winds in the Papagayo region will continue to
pulse to fresh to strong through early next week. Winds in the=20
Gulf of Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night.=20
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early
next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore=20
water through Sun night.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area=20
near 34N128W. The pressure gradient between the associated=20
subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep=20
tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 08N
to 16N and west of about 128W and from 07N to 19N W of 118W.=20
Wave heights in this zone are in the 6-8 ft range, with the=20
highest waves W of 135W. The 8 ft wave heights are forecast to=20
subside to just below 8 ft early Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or=20
weaker winds are present along with slighter lower wave heights=20
of 5-7 ft.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of our area is forecast
to weaken through Sat night as it shifts east-southeastward=20
in response to an approaching cold front. This trend will allow
for the trade winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds=20
will prevail over most of the Pacific waters through the=20
weekend. The cold front will be tied to a rather robust=20
extratropical low that is expected to move eastward well to the=20
north of 30N this weekend. The low will drag the cold front=20
across the extreme northwest waters Sat night, then to a=20
position from near 30N135W to 28N140W late Sat night and from=20
near 30N129W to 28N133W to 25N140W by early Sun afternoon.=20
Strong southwest winds will precede the front to within 120 nm=20
and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh to strong=20
northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front along=20
with wave heights of 8-10 ft late on Sat night, building to 8 to=20
16 ft on Sun night. Northwesterly swell from this system will=20
propagate southward across the area, reaching to near 08N by Tue
night.

$$
Stripling


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