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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Tropical Cyclone 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220326070413.9F0DB1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 07:04:13 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 260625
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/10/20212022
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.2 S / 73.8 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY THREE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 8 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 967 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 13 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/26 18 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 175 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 155 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 45 SE: 45 SW: 35 NW: 35

24H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 76.0 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 295 SW: 165 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65
64 KT NE: 35 SE: 35 SW: 45 NW: 35

36H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 215 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 95
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 75 SW: 55 NW: 35

48H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.3 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 100

60H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 80.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 120

72H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 20.6 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 185 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 120 SW: 75 NW: 100

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 19.5 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 185 SW: 110 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 65 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 45 SW: 45 NW: 65

120H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.3 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 250 SW: 175 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 150 SW: 120 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=5.0-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS DETERIORATED. THE
CDO HAS CLEARLY WARMED UP AND THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE
MUCH MORE PATCHY. THE LATE NIGHT MICROWAVE IMAGES ( 2334Z AND 0104Z
SSMIS) SHOW THE WEAKENING OF THE INNER CIRCULATION WITH A FADING EYE.
THIS WEAKENING SEEMS TO BE CLEARLY RELATED TO THE SHEAR
STRENGTHENING, ESPECIALLY THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY MIDSHEAR ANALYZED
THIS MORNING AROUND 30KT BY THE CIMSS. MICROWAVE AND WATER VAPOUR
IMAGES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DRY INTRUSION IN THE NORTH-EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE CONSISTENT WITH THIS SHEAR. THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM
MUST ALSO HAVE FAVORED THE RAPIDITY OF THIS WEAKENING. IN AGREEMENT
WITH THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES AND THE 0408Z ASCAT
DATA, THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 75KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA HAS STARTED TO ACCELERATE
SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA SLIDING
SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE TRAJECTORY WILL TURN EASTWARD
THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA
SHOULD SLOW DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY, BEING IN REMOTE MARGIN OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC ACTORS. ALTHOUGH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS WIDELY ACCEPTED,
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF DISCREPANCY, NEXT WEEK, ON THE EXACT BEARING
AND MOTION SPEED OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE BEST NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS NO LONGER SEEM TO BE PRESENT
FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION AT SHORT RANGE. IN ADDITION TO THE
MIDSHEAR, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. A MORE PRONOUNCED WEAKENING
IN RELATION TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE MID-LEVELS IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW AND MONDAY. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD
TEMPORARILY FIND MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASING SHEAR,
A STRONGER DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND WARMER SST. NEVERTHELESS A NEW
TROUGH AND THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A NEW WEAKENING PHASE.
THIS INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. THE
LATTER WILL PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE SHORT TERM EVOLUTION.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR THE INHABITED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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