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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 09:58:25 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 260958
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: North to northeast gale-force=20
winds to 35 kt are ongoing across and downwind of the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec, behind 2 cold fronts that have recently swept across
the Gulf of Mexico. Peak seas are near 12 ft downwind of=20
Tehuantepec. High pressure across the western Gulf of Mexico
driving these winds will begin to shift northeastward across the
Gulf of Mexico today, leading to a slow but gradual decrease in=20
winds across Tehuantepec by this afternoon, falling below gale=20
force. Strong winds to near 30 kt are expected to continue=20
through Sun morning, then diminish in strength and aerial=20
coverage through Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast=20
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website=20
https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__=
;!!DZ3fjg!uoq-238HGPi-T6tvfPvi6Oe-KRzHcr7RDkXcfk96sg8B37yfEpicygV_ebDPFG5MJ=
Grginh-$  for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough axis extends from 10N75W to 07N78W to 08.5N86W
to 03N99W to 05N109W. The ITCZ begins from 05N109W to 04N120W to=20
07N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong=20
convection is noted within 60 nm of the coast of Ecuador from=20
02N to 0.5N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is=20
noted S of the trough to 00N between 82W and 101W. Scattered=20
moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm either
side of the ITCZ between 114W and 140W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak high pressure ridge prevails across the offshore and=20
regional waters tonight. The associated pressure gradient is=20
yielding light to locally moderate N to NW winds across the=20
waters offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in=20
NW swell. Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of=20
California. Seas are generally fair in the Gulf at 1-2 ft, except
in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 2-3=20
ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable=20
winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in NW swell=20
mixed with S swell.

ASCAT satellite derived surface winds from 0300 to 0400 UTC
tonight measured peak winds to 35 kt across Tehuantepec. Gap=20
winds across Tehuantepec extend well offshore to 13.5N96W and=20
are producing a zone of strong winds about 120 nm wide. Seas of=20
8 ft and greater cover an even larger area and extend offshore to
09N between 95W and 101W.

Tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across the
Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun,
as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh southerly
winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of California=20
then become fresh to strong from the SW Sun night through Mon
night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A deep layered low
pressure system will move into southern California late Mon,
preceded by the cold front. The front will usher in large NW=20=20
swell across the waters west of Baja California beginning Mon
evening, building seas to 10-14 ft across the outer waters of=20
Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja Sur by Tue=20
evening. The strong SW winds across the northern Gulf of=20
California will raise seas to near 8 ft by Mon night. Conditions
across Tehuantepec will improve significantly Sun afternoon and=20
continue through mid week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh northeast to east gap winds prevail across the Papagayo=20
region tonight and extend northward to offshore of Nicaragua.
These winds are expected to strengthen to strong through sunrise,
and build peak seas offshore to 7-8 ft. from 08N to 11N between=20
88W- 93W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail across the=20
Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 07N as measured by
a 0220 UTC ASCAT satellite pass. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere.
Wave heights tonight remain in the 4-6 ft range in S swell. The=20
exception to this is across the Guatemala offshore waters where=20
seas generated from the strong to gale force gap winds across
Tehuantepec are producing NW wind swell, producing seas of 6 to=20
9 ft and dominate the waters W of 90W.

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of
Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night.=20
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early
next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore=20
water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1021 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area=20
near 32N128W. The pressure gradient between the associated=20
subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep=20
tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 06N
to 19N and west of 118W. Wave heights in this zone are in the=20
6-8 ft range, with the highest waves W of 135W. The 8 ft wave=20
heights are forecast to subside to just below 8 ft early Sat.=20
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present along with=20
slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken=20
through Sat night as it shifts east-southeastward in response to=20
an approaching cold front. This trend will allow for the trade=20
winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail=20
over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. A strong
upper level trough will move across the waters W of 130W and S of
20N Sat and Sun and induce very active convection along and N of
the ITCZ to the W of 130W. The approaching cold front will
precede a rather robust extratropical low that is expected to=20
move eastward well to the north of 30N this weekend. The low will
drag the cold front across the extreme northwest waters Sat=20
afternoon, then to a position from near 30N134W to 27N140W late=20
Sat night, and from near 30N127W to 26N133W to 24N140W by early=20
Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to=20
within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh=20
to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the=20
front along with wave heights of 8-10 ft late on Sat night,=20
building to 8 to 18 ft on Sun night. Northwesterly swell from=20
this system will propagate southward across the area, reaching to
near 08N by Tue night.

$$
Stripling


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