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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: Tropical Cyclone Forecast Warning (south-west Indian Ocean) 
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Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 13:04:27 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 261302 CCA
***************CORRECTIVE**************
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 20/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 74.4 E
(SEVENTEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 60 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 260 SE: 260 SW: 165 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 85 NW: 85
48 KT NE: 55 SE: 55 SW: 50 NW: 45
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 75.7 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 220 SW: 150 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 100 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 65 SE: 55 SW: 55 NW: 55

24H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.6 S / 77.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 285 SW: 165 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 120
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

36H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.0 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 230 SW: 185 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110

48H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 215 SE: 175 SW: 130 NW: 150
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 85 NW: 100

60H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 75 NW: 100

72H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 20.1 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 110 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 100 SW: 0 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 0 NW: 100

120H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 130 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 95 NW: 95

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.0 CI=4.5-

DURING THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO DECAY.
INDEED, HALIMA'S CENTER WAS ON THE EDGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
WITH PARTS OF THE INNER CIRCULATION BECOMING APPARENT ON THE VISIBLE
IMAGERY AROUND 9Z. THE CONFIGURATION HAS TEMPORARILY IMPROVED BETWEEN
9Z AND 11Z WITH A CONVECTIVE BAND WRAPPING IN THE NORTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. HOWEVER, THE LAST IMAGES SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS AGAIN DECLINING WITH WARMING TOPS. THE 1138Z
SSMIS PASS CONFIRMS THESE TRENDS WITH A CENTER ON THE EDGE OF THE
CURVED BAND AND THE PRESENCE OF DRY AIR IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE
CORE. GIVEN THESE EVOLUTIONS AND THE LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES (SATCON NOTABLY), THE INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 60KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA HAS ACCELERATED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST.
FROM SUNDAY, HALIMA SLIDING SOUTH OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND
WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTHWEST, THE
TRAJECTORY WILL TURN EASTWARD THEN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY OR
TUESDAY. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY, BEING IN REMOTE MARGIN OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC ACTORS.
ALTHOUGH THIS OVERALL SCENARIO IS WIDELY ACCEPTED, THERE IS STILL A
LOT OF DISCREPANCY, NEXT WEEK, ON THE EXACT BEARING AND MOTION SPEED
OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE
BEST NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS NO LONGER SEEM TO BE PRESENT
FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN ADDITION TO THE MIDSHEAR, THE
DEEP NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THE WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE
TOMORROW AND MONDAY, IN RELATION TO THE DRY AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE
MID-LEVELS. ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, THE SYSTEM COULD TEMPORARILY
FIND MORE FAVOURABLE CONDITIONS WITH A DECREASING SHEAR, A STRONGER
DIVERGENCE TO THE SOUTH AND WARMER SST. NEVERTHELESS A NEW TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SHEAR COULD LEAD TO A NEW WEAKENING PHASE. THIS
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF
THE SYSTEM AND ALSO THE POSSIBLE REINTENSIFICATION. THE LATTER WILL
PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE SHORT TERM EVOLUTION. GIVEN THE
RECENT EVOLUTION, THE CURRENT WEAKENING MAY BE FATAL FOR HALIMA.

HALIMA DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT FOR THE INHABITED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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