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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 16:09:49 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 261609
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: An overnight ASCAT pass
revealed north to northeast gale-force winds of 30-35 kt across=20
and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 15N. Wave=20
heights there are in the range of 9-12 ft. High pressure across=20
the western Gulf of Mexico will begin to shift northeastward=20
across the Gulf of Mexico today leading to a gradual decrease in=20
winds across Tehuantepec through this evening. Winds are expected
to diminish to near gale-force by early on Sun, to mainly fresh=20
speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong speeds Sun=20
night and become gentle northerly winds on Mon. Wave heights in=20
the Gulf will slowly subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon.=20
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noa=
a.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!ujwGr3wYKm4d-ZGmzq3KODR052Z4eGdMyVNgT=
x26zsP1HqJhOQST3BA_IZtJjd62727PtK-_$=20
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near=20
10N75W, southward to 07N78W to 04N90W to 03N98W and to 04N105W,=20
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ and continues to 04N118W to 05N130W and to beyond=20
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 01N to 05N between 83W-87W, within 120 north of the trough=20
between 84W-88W, within 120 north of the ITCZ between 127W-130W,=20
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 127W-130W and within 60 nm
north of the ITCZ between 124W-126W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 102W-104W,
and within 30 nm south of the ITCZ between 115W-120W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Please see the Special Features section above for details about
a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

A weak high pressure ridge is over the offshore waters. The=20
associated pressure gradient is allowing for light to gentle
northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of Baja=20
southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-6 ft in northwest swell.=20
Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of California. Wave=20
height are generally fair in the Gulf at 1-2 ft, except in the=20
southern section where they are slightly higher of 2-3 ft.=20
Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds=20
are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in NW swell mixed=20
with S swell.

An overnight ASCAT pass shows a swath of strong north to northeast
winds, about 120 nm in width, present downwind of the Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec gale-force winds to near 12N. Wave heights with these=20
winds are in the range of 8-12 ft. Wave heights of 8 ft and=20
greater cover an even larger area and extend offshore to near
09N and between 95W and 100W.

Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across
the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun,
as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh=20
southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of=20
California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun=20
night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A=20
deep layered low pressure system will move into southern=20
California late Mon, preceded by the cold front. The front will=20
usher in a set of large northwest swell across the waters west=20
of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 10-14=20
ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching=20
the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest=20
winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave
heights to near 8 ft by Mon night. Conditions across Tehuantepec
will improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through=20
mid-week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo=20
region tonight and extend northward to offshore of Nicaragua.
Wave heights with these winds are of 8-9 ft. Moderate to fresh=20
northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and extend=20
southward to around 06N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with=20
wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this is=20
across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated from=20
the strong to gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are=20
producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-10 ft there.

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of
Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong Sat night.=20
Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker into early
next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec=20
gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala offshore=20
water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly.=20

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1020 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area=20
near 32N128W. The pressure gradient between the associated=20
subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep=20
tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 06N=20
to 19N and west of 118W. Wave heights in this zone are in the
5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present=20
along with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken=20
through Sat night as it shifts east-southeastward in response to=20
an approaching cold front. This trend will allow for the trade=20
winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail=20
over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. A strong
upper level trough will move across the waters W of 130W and S of
20N Sat and Sun and induce very active convection along and N of
the ITCZ to the W of 130W. The approaching cold front will
precede a rather robust extratropical low that is expected to=20
move eastward well to the north of 30N this weekend. The low will
drag the cold front across the extreme northwest waters Sat=20
afternoon, then to a position from near 30N134W to 27N140W late=20
tonight, and from near 30N128W to 27N133W to 25N140W by early=20
Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to=20
within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh=20
to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the=20
front along with wave heights of 8-10 ft late tonight, building=20
to 8-16 ft on Sun night. Northwesterly swell from this system=20
will propagate southward across the area, reaching to near 08N by
Tue night.

$$
Aguirre


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