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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220326193410.3559B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 19:34:10 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 261833
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 21/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/26 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 75.0 E
(EIGHTEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 986 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 06 UTC: 20.1 S / 76.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 250 SE: 280 SW: 155 NW: 250
34 KT NE: 150 SE: 130 SW: 110 NW: 175
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.3 S / 78.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 285 SW: 155 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 65 NW: 65

36H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 230 SE: 270 SW: 185 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 110

48H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.7 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 120 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 120

60H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 215 SW: 0 NW: 155
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 85 SW: 0 NW: 100

72H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.4 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 130

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.2 S / 81.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 240 SW: 0 NW: 155

120H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 80.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.0

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS KEPT ON DEGRADING UNDER
THE EFFECT OF A MODERATE TO STRONG MID-TROPOSPHERIC WESTERLY WIND
SHEAR, AS SUGGESTED BY THE CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE CIMSS
DATA. THE CONVECTION PROGRESSIVELY COLLAPSED FROM THE END OF THE
AFTERNOON, WITH CLOUD TOPS GETTING WARMER AND WARMER. IT WAS ONLY TWO
HOURS BEFORE THE NETWORK TIME THAT THE CONVECTION TRIED TO
RECONSTITUTE ITSELF WEAKLY IN THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE LLC. MOREOVER THE CLOUD SYSTEM CENTER WAS PUNCTUALLY EXPOSED FROM
17Z. IN THE ABSENCE OF MICROWAVE IMAGES AND SCATTEROMETRIC DATA, IT
IS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE EVOLUTION OF THE INTERNAL ORGANIZATION
OF HALIMA. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE
LAST SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (SATCON, AIDT AND ADT). THE
INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 55KT.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, HALIMA IS KEEPING A GOOD PACE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTHEAST. FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE, DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHWEST, THUS IMPULSING A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST AT FIRST THEN NORTH-EAST FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD CLEARLY SLOW DOWN, BEING ON THE FAR MARGIN
OF THE MAIN  MID-TROPOSPHERE SYNOPTIC ACTORS AND SHOULD CURVE A TRACK
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN MARGIN OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS GLOBAL
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, A STRONG
DISPERSION PERSISTS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK ON THE EXACT HEADING AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE BEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY SEEM TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, IN ADDITION TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY, AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE
AIR DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HALIMA COULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN
ITSELF FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS BY KEEPING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS
CIRCULATION, THANKS TO A RETURN TO WARMER SURFECE WATERS,
NEVERTHELESS THE APPROACH OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH COULD DEFINITIVELY
LEAD TO A NEW DEFINITIVE WEAKENING PHASE THIS TIME. THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS SENSITIVE TO FLUCTUATIONS OF ITS ENVIRONMENT.
THE LATTER WILL PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.

CYCLONE HALIMA PRESENTS NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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