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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Sat, 26 Mar 2022 22:02:49 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 262201
TWDEP=20

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2145 UTC.

Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: An overnight ASCAT pass
revealed north to northeast gale-force winds of 30-35 kt across=20
and downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to near 15N. Wave=20
heights there are in the range of 9-12 ft. High pressure across=20
the western Gulf of Mexico will begin to shift northeastward=20
across the Gulf of Mexico today leading to a gradual decrease in=20
winds across Tehuantepec through this evening. Winds are expected
to diminish to near gale-force by early on Sun, to mainly fresh=20
speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong speeds Sun=20
night and become gentle northerly winds on Mon. Wave heights in=20
the Gulf will slowly subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon.=20
Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website https://urldefense.com/v3/__https://www.nhc.noa=
a.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml__;!!DZ3fjg!sJFA00tbmrqSLeExW3QCUfJON0tyZ_v5r0RTL=
LqTimuz6dQD1Q8jujMqBS_6iqVDJIQzl4d5$=20
for more details.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...=20

A surface trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near=20
10N75W, southwestward to 07N78W to 05N87W to 03N95W and to=20
04N105W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it=20
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N116W to 05N123W
to 05N133W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ
between 127W-134W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-
127W, within 120 south of the trough between 84W-88W and within=20
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 123W-128W. Scattered moderate=20
convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 102W-=20
105W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 105W-107W, within=20
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 110W- 113W and within 30 nm=20
south of the ITCZ between 114W-116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico has shifted=20
slightly enough to east-northeast causing the gradient over=20
southern Mexico to slacken a little. This has allowed for the=20
earlier Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force winds to weaken to near=20
gale- force. As the high pressure continues to shift east-
northeastward through Sun, these winds diminish further to mainly
fresh speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong speeds=20
Sun night and become light and variable Mon afternoon. Wave=20
heights of 8-11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly subside
to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Wave heights of 8-10 ft ft in=20
north to northeast swell downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from
09N to 13N and between 95W and 100W will decay by early Sun=20
evening.

Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1019 mb high=20
center north of the area near 33N125W remains over the offshore=20
waters. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for light to
gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of=20
Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 3-5 ft in northwest=20
swell. Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of=20
California. Wave height are generally fair in the Gulf at 1-2 ft,
except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of
2-3 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle=20
variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in=20
NW swell mixed with S swell.

Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across
the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun,
as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh=20
southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of=20
California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun=20
night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A=20
deep layered low pressure system will move into southern=20
California late Mon, preceded by the cold front. The front will=20
usher in a set of large northwest swell across the waters west=20
of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-34=20
ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching=20
the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds
across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights=20
to near 8 ft by Mon night. Conditions across Tehuantepec will=20
improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through mid-=20
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and=20
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo=20
region tonight and extend northward to the southern offshore of=20
Nicaragua. Wave heights with these winds are 8 ft. Moderate to=20
fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and=20
extend southward to around 06N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere,=20
with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this
is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated=20
from the strong to gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are=20
producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-10 ft there.

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of
Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun
night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker=20
into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of=20
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala=20
offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area=20
near 33N125W. The pressure gradient between the associated=20
subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep=20
tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 07N
to 14N and west of about 119W. Wave heights in this zone are in=20
the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present
along with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken=20
through tonight as it shifts east-southeastward in response to=20
an approaching cold front. This trend will allow for the trade=20
winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail=20
over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. A strong=20
upper-level trough will move across the waters W of 130W and S=20
of 20N Sat and Sun and induce very active convection along and N=20
of the ITCZ to the W of 130W. The approaching cold front will=20
precede a rather robust extratropical low that is expected to=20
move eastward well to the north of 30N this weekend. The low will
drag the cold front across the extreme northwest waters Sat=20
afternoon, then to a position from near 30N134W to 27N140W late=20
tonight, and from near 30N128W to 27N133W to 25N140W by early Sun
afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the front to=20
within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh=20
to strong northwest to north winds will follow in behind the=20
front along with wave heights of 8-10 ft late tonight, building=20
to 8-16 ft on Sun night. Northwesterly swell from this system=20
will propagate southward across the area, with the leading=20
edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line from near Cabo San=20
Lazaro, Baja California to 15N124W and to near 08N140W by Tue=20
night.

$$
Aguirre


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