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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion...corrected 
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Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 00:45:26 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 270045 CCA
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Mar 26 2022

Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico 

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough axis extends from northwest Colombia near 
10N75W, southwestward to 07N78W to 05N87W to 03N95W and to 
04N105W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it 
transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 04N116W to 05N123W
to 05N133W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is seen within 180 nm north of the ITCZ
between 127W-134W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 125W-
127W, within 120 south of the trough between 84W-88W and within 
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 123W-128W. Scattered moderate 
convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 102W- 
105W, within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 105W-107W, within 
120 nm south of the ITCZ between 110W- 113W and within 30 nm 
south of the ITCZ between 114W-116W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico has shifted 
slightly enough to the east-northeast causing the gradient over 
southern Mexico to slacken a little. This has allowed for the 
earlier Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force winds to weaken to near 
gale- force. As the high pressure continues to shift east-
northeastward through Sun, these winds diminish further to 
mainly fresh speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly pulse to strong 
speeds Sun night and become light and variable Mon afternoon. 
Wave heights of 8-11 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly 
subside to less than 8 ft by early Mon. Wave heights of 8-10 ft 
due to primarily north to northeast swell downwind of the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec from 09N to 13N and between 95W and 100W will 
decay by early Sun evening.

Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1019 mb high 
center north of the area near 33N125W remains over the offshore 
waters. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for light to
gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of 
Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 3-5 ft in northwest 
swell. Light and variable winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California. Wave height are generally low in the Gulf at 1-2 ft, 
except in the southern section where they are slightly higher of 
2-3 ft. Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle 
variable winds are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in 
northwest swell mixing with a south swell component.

Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across
the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun,
as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh 
southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of 
California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun 
night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A 
deep-layered low pressure system will move into southern 
California late Mon, preceded by the cold front. The front will 
usher in a set of large northwest swell across the waters west 
of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-13 
ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching 
the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest 
winds across the northern Gulf of California will build wave 
heights to near 8 ft by Mon night. Conditions across Tehuantepec 
will improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through 
mid-week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo 
region tonight and extend northward to the southern offshore of 
Nicaragua. Wave heights with these winds are 8 ft. Moderate to 
fresh northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and 
extend southward to around 06N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, 
with wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this
is across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated 
from the strong to gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are 
producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-10 ft there.

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of
Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun
night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker 
into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala 
offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed north of the area 
near 33N125W. The pressure gradient between the associated 
subtropical ridge and relatively lower pressure in the deep 
tropics is resulting in moderate trade winds, primarily from 07N
to 14N and west of about 119W. Wave heights in this zone are in 
the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are present
along with slighter lower wave heights of 5-7 ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken 
through tonight as it shifts east-southeastward in response to 
an approaching cold front. This trend will allow for the trade 
winds to diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail 
over most of the Pacific waters through the weekend. Very active 
convection will continue south of about 19N and west of about 
128W through at least Sun. Convection is also very active along 
and near the ITCZ from 03N to 09N and between 124W and 128W.

The approaching cold front will precede a rather robust 
extratropical low that is expected to move eastward well to the 
north of 30N this weekend. The low will drag the cold front 
across the extreme northwest waters this evening, then to a 
position from near 30N134W to 27N140W late tonight, and from 
near 30N128W to 27N133W to 25N140W by early Sun afternoon. 
Strong southwest winds will precede the front to within 120 nm 
and north of 29N, with wave heights to 8 ft. Fresh to strong 
northwest to north winds will follow in behind the front along 
with wave heights of 8-10 ft late tonight, building to 8-16 ft 
on Sun night. Northwest to north swell from this system will 
propagate southward across the area, with the leading edge of 8 
ft wave heights reaching to a line from near Cabo San Lazaro, 
Baja California Sur to 15N124W and to near 08N140W by Tue night.

$$
Aguirre


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