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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220327011339.294B11C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 01:13:39 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 270039
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.6 S / 75.5 E
(NINETEEN    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FIVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/4.0/W 0.5/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 984 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 295 SE: 110 SW: 130 NW: 260
34 KT NE: 185 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 220
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 140
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 295 SW: 155 NW: 185
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 140 SW: 120 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 65

24H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.6 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 240 SE: 270 SW: 165 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 140 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 140
48 KT NE: 75 SE: 65 SW: 55 NW: 55

36H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 21.9 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 270 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 100

48H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 82.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 175 SE: 220 SW: 130 NW: 165
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 95 SW: 100 NW: 100

60H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 20.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

72H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 175 SW: 0 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 65

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 185 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 75

120H: 2022/04/01 00 UTC: 18.7 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 120

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.5 ET CI=4.0-

OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS REMAINED ON THE
MARGIN OF THE FLARING CONVECTIVE PUSHES IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. THE WEAKENING OF HALIMA IS LINKED
TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY BRINGING
STRONG WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE (30 TO
40KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA). IN ADDITION, THERE IS ALSO AN
INTRUSION OF DRY AIR ALOFT ON THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH IS GRADUALLY BYPASSING THE LLC. THIS ONE IS WELL
DEPICTED ON THE CLASSICAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AS WELL AS ON THE CIMMS
MIMIC-TPW. THE 2018Z AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS AN EROSION OF
THE INNER WALL IN ITS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PART, AND ALSO ALLOWED TO
DETERMINE MORE PRECISELY THE POSITION OF THE SYSTEM, WITH RESPECT TO
THE WEAK CONVECTION. THE CLOUD PATTERN CONTINUED TO DEGRADE SLIGHTLY.
GIVEN THE RECENT EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM AND THE LATEST SUBJECTIVE
AND OBJECTIVE ANALYSES (SATCON, ADT AND AIDT), THE INTENSITE IS HELD
AT 55KT, SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE OBJECTIVE DATA.

IN TERMS OF TRAJECTORY, HALIMA IS KEEPING A GOOD PACE TOWARDS THE
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WEAK SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTH AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN
THE NORTHEAST. FROM THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL
PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN ITS COURSE, DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IN
THE SOUTHWEST, THUS IMPULSING A TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE
EAST-NORTH-EAST AT FIRST THEN NORTH-EAST FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD CLEARLY SLOW DOWN, BEING ON THE FAR MARGIN
OF THE MAIN  MID-TROPOSPHERE SYNOPTIC ACTORS AND SHOULD CURVE A TRACK
NORTHWARD TO NORTH-WESTWARD UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN MARGIN OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS GLOBAL
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, A STRONG
DISPERSION PERSISTS AT THE END OF NEXT WEEK ON THE EXACT HEADING AND
SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS OF THE BEST AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY SEEM TO BE IN
PLACE FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, IN ADDITION TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY, AND THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-TROPOSPHERE
AIR DUE TO THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. HALIMA COULD TEMPORARILY MAINTAIN
ITSELF FROM TUESDAY ONWARDS BY KEEPING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS IN ITS
CIRCULATION, THANKS TO A RETURN TO WARMER SURFECE WATERS,
NEVERTHELESS THE APPROACH OF A NEW UPPER TROUGH COULD DEFINITIVELY
LEAD TO A NEW DEFINITIVE WEAKENING PHASE THIS TIME. THIS INTENSITY
PREDICTION REMAINS RATHER UNCERTAIN, DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE
SYSTEM WHICH REMAINS SENSITIVE TO FLUCTUATIONS OF ITS ENVIRONMENT.
THE LATTER WILL PROBABLY BE VERY DEPENDENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.

CYCLONE HALIMA PRESENTS NO THREAT TO THE INHABITED LANDS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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