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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 03:20:50 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 270320
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0240 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N74W to 
04.5N81W to 05.5N87W to 03N97W and to 05N107W. The ITCZ continues
from 05N107W to 07.5N135W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen from 00N to 08N between 83W and 
108W, and from 02.5N to 08N between 116W and 136W. 

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected

High pressure over the western Gulf of Mexico has shifted 
sufficiently to the east-northeast to cause the pressure 
gradient over southern Mexico to slacken a little. This has 
allowed for the earlier Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force winds to 
weaken to below gale-force early tonight. As the high pressure 
continues to shift east-northeastward through Sun, these winds
will diminish further to fresh to strong speeds Sun afternoon, 
then briefly pulse to strong speeds Sun night and become light 
and variable Mon afternoon. Wave heights of 8-10 ft in the Gulf 
of Tehuantepec will slowly subside to less than 8 ft by early 
Mon. Wave heights of 8-10 ft due to north to northeast swell 
extend downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec from 09N to 13N and 
between 94W and 100W will decay to 5-8 ft by early Sun evening.

Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1017 mb high 
center west of the area near 27N124W remains over the offshore 
waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is allowing for 
light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters 
offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in 
northwest swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California, and increase to moderate across far north portions. 
Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-2 ft, except in 
the southern section where they are slightly higher of 2-3 ft. 
Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds 
are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell 
mixing with small south swell.

Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across
the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun,
as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun, fresh 
southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of 
California then become fresh to strong from the southwest Sun 
night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching cold front. A 
deep-layered low pressure system will move into southern 
California late Mon, preceded by the cold front. The front will 
usher in large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja 
California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-13 ft across
the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the 
waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds 
across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to
near 8 ft by Mon evening. Conditions across Tehuantepec will 
improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through mid- 
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo 
region tonight and extend northward to the central offshore
waters of Nicaragua. Wave heights with these winds are 4-7 ft but
increase to 8 ft well downwind along 90W. Moderate to fresh 
northerly winds continue across the Gulf of Panama, and extend 
southward to around 06.5N. Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with 
wave heights of 4-6 ft in south swell. The exception to this is 
across the Guatemala offshore waters where seas generated from 
the strong to gale force gap winds across Tehuantepec are 
producing northwest swell producing seas of 7-9 ft there.

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through early next week. Winds in the Gulf of
Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun
night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker 
into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala 
offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing significantly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1017 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 27N124W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
moderate trade winds, primarily from 06N to 14N and west of 
about 112W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 6-7 ft range. 
A cold front has just entered the northwest portion of the
discussion area, crossing 30N140W. A surface trough precedes the
front and extends from 30N136W to beyond 27N140W. Moderate to
fresh SW winds prevail between the trough and the front, with
seas to 8 ft in new NW swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker 
winds are present W of 120W, with wave heights of 5-6 ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken 
through tonight as it shifts east-southeastward in response to 
the cold front. This trend will allow for the trade winds to 
diminish. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail over most 
of the Pacific waters through the weekend. Very active convection
will continue south of about 19N and west of about 128W through 
at least Sun. Convection is strong active along and near the 
ITCZ from 04N to 07N and between 124W and 133W.

The cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 986
mb near 41N137W. The low is expected to move eastward well to 
the north of 30N this weekend and drag the cold front across the
extreme northwest waters this evening, then to a position from 
near 30N134W to 27N140W late tonight, and from near 30N128W to 
27N133W to 25N140W by early Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds
will precede the front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with 
wave heights 8-9 ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds 
will follow in behind the front along with wave heights of 8-10 
ft late tonight, building to 8-16 ft on Sun night. Northwest to 
north swell from this system will propagate southward across the 
area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a 
line from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California Sur to 15N124W 
and to near 08N140W by Tue night.

$$
Stripling


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