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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220327070708.B5E031C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 07:07:08 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 270642
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 23/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.2 S / 76.9 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SIX    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/27 18 UTC: 21.1 S / 79.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 195 SE: 220 SW: 195 NW: 205
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 150 SW: 140 NW: 140

24H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.8 S / 80.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 230 SW: 195 NW: 195
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 155 SW: 130 NW: 140

36H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 175 SW: 120 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 120 SW: 95 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.4 S / 82.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 85 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 85

72H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 95

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 06 UTC: 19.0 S / 80.0 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 100

120H: 2022/04/01 06 UTC: 18.1 S / 79.1 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0+ AND CI=3.5

THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITHIN HALIMA'S CIRCULATION CONTINUES TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE CLASSICAL IMAGERY UNDER THE EFFECT
OF AN ENVIRONMENT MORE AND MORE HOSTILE TO THE MAINTENANCE OF A TC
(SHEAR AND DRY AIR INTRUSION MAINLY). THE RECONSTITUTION OF AN
INTERNAL CORE VISIBLE AT TIMES ON MICROWAVE IMAGERY (AS ON THE AMSR2
LAST NIGHT) DOES NOT PERSIST. THE INTENSITY AT 50 KT IS BASED ON A
GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE ESTIMATES AS WELL AS
DATA FROM THE 0348Z AND 0441Z ASCAT PASSES SUGGESTING THE PRESENCE OF
STORM FORCE WINDS WITHIN THE CIRCULATION.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA HAS SIGNIFICANTLY MOVED MORE IN AN EASTERLY
DIRECTION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO
THE NORTH AND A MID TO UPPER LEVELS TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. FROM THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN ITS
COURSE, DUE TO THE WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR
THE EQUATOR AND THE SWELLING OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST, THUS IMPELLING A TRACK TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTH-EAST AT
FIRST THEN NORTH-EAST FROM TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. BEYOND THAT, HALIMA
SHOULD CLEARLY SLOW DOWN, BEING ON THE FAR MARGIN OF THE MAIN
SYNOPTIC ACTORS OF THE MID-TROPOSPHERE AND SHOULD CURVE A TRACK
TOWARDS THE NORTH TO NORTH-WEST UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE ON THE SOUTH-WESTERN MARGIN OF THE SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH THIS GLOBAL
SCENARIO IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE, A STRONG
DISPERSION PERSISTS BEYOND THE 48 HOURS OF FORECAST AND ESPECIALLY AT
THE END OF NEXT WEEK ON THE EXACT HEADING AND SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF
THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE BEST
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION. IN FACT, IN ADDITION TO THE
MID-TROPOSPHERE SHEAR CURRENTLY OBSERVED, THE DEEP NORTHWESTERLY
SHEAR SHOULD ALSO STRENGTHEN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF AN UPPER
TROUGH. THE CURRENT WEAKENING SHOULD THEREFORE CONTINUE MORE OR LESS
RAPIDLY, AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECTED TO INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE, UNDER THE EFFECT OF THE SHEAR.
THE INTENSITY GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM WEDNESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE
EMERGING: A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION (OPTION
SUPPORTED BY GFS/00Z, HWRF/00Z, ARP/00Z AS WELL AS THE MAJORITY OF
EPS/18Z AND GEFS/00Z MEMBERS) OR A MORE OR LESS TEMPORARY
RE-INTESIFICATION POTENTIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH LONGER EASTWARD
DRIFTING TRACK ALLOWING TO LIMIT THE IMPACT OF A PERSISTANT WESTERLY
SHEAR (OPTION PARTIALLY SUPPORTED BY IFS/18Z, UKMO/00Z AND NVGM/18Z).
THE CMRS OPTS MORE FOR THE FIRST OPTION BUT WE NOTE THAT THE
INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN THAN NORMAL.

CYCLONE HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO LAND AREAS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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