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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-N: Bay Of 
Message-ID: <20220327081524.108221C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 08:15:24 +0000
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WTIN20 DEMS 210940
       SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE
BAY OF
       BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT
0930 UTC OF
       21.03.2022 BASED ON 0600 UTC OF 21.03.2022.
       SUB: DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY
       OF BENGAL
       THE DEEP DEPRESSION OVER NORTH ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST
       BAY OF BENGAL, MOVED NEARLY NORTHWARDS WITH A SPEED OF 13 KMPH
       DURING LAST 06 HOURS, AND LAY CENTERED AT 0600 UTC OF TODAY,
21ST MARCH,
       OVER THE SAME REGION, NEAR LATITUDE 12.6ON AND LONGITUDE
93.9OE, ABOUT
       110 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MAYABUNDAR (43309), 170 KM NORTHEAST
OF PORT
       BLAIR (43333), 530 KM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF YANGON (48097) AND
650 KM SOUTH
       OF THANDWE (48080).
                IT IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO A CYCLONIC
STORM DURING NEXT
       12 HOURS. IT W OULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NEARLY NORTHWARDS ALONG &
OFF
       ANDAMAN ISLANDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND
CROSS
       MYANMAR COAST BETWEEN LATITUDE 180N & 190N AROUND THANDWE
(MYANMAR)
       AROUND 0000 UTC OF 23RD MARCH.
       FORECAST TRACK AND INTENSITY ARE GIVEN IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE:
          DATE/TIME(UTC)              POSITION       MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE                           CATEGORY OF
                                      (LAT. 0N/              WIND
SPEED (KMPH)                              CYCLONIC
                                      LONG. 0E)
DISTURBANCE
            21.03.22/0600              12.6/93.9            55-65
GUSTING TO 75                       DEEP DEPRESSION
            21.03.22/1800              14.3/94.0            65-75
GUSTING TO 85                        CYCLONIC STORM
            22.03.22/0600              15.9/93.8            65-75
GUSTING TO 85                        CYCLONIC STORM
            22.03.22/1800              17.6/94.0            55-65
GUSTING TO 75                       DEEP DEPRESSION
            23.03.22/0600              19.5/94.7            35-45
GUSTING TO 55                      WELL-MARKED LOW
       AS PER INSAT 3D IMAGERY, INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERISED AS T 2.0.
       ASSOCIATED BROKEN LOW AND MEDIUM CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED INTENSE
TO VERY
       INTENSE CONVECTION LAY OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND ADJOINING
SOUTHEAST BAY OF
       BENGAL BETWEEN LATITUDE 11.0N & 16N AND LONGITUDE 90.0E &
97.0E AND ANDAMAN &
       NICOBAR ISLANDS. MINIMUM CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURE IS AROUND MINUS
90 DEG C. THE
       CONVECTIVE CLOUD MASS HAS FURTHER ORGANISED DURING PAST 03
HOURS AND
       VISIBLE IMAGE OF INSAT-3D AT 0600 UTC INDICATES CENTER OF THE
SYSTEM IS LOCATED
       UNDER THE LARGE DENSE OVERCAST.

       THE ESTIMATED MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 40 KNOTS.
       THE SEA CONDITION IS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH OVER ANDAMAN SEA AND
ADJOINING
       SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1000 HPA.
       REMARKS:
       SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS AROUND 29-300C OVER ANDAMAN SEA,
SOUTHEAST AND
       ADJOINING EASTCENTRAL BAY OF BENGAL (BOB). TROPICAL CYCLONE
HEAT POTENTIAL IS
       AROUND 60-80 KJ/CM2 OVER THE SAME REGION BECOMING LESS THAN 50
KJ/CM2 OVER
       NORTH BOB. THE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) INDEX CURRENTLY
LIES IN PHASE 3
       WITH AMPLITUDE MORE THAN 1. IT WILL CONTINUE IN SAME PHASE FOR
NEXT 2 DAYS AND
       MOVE TO PHASE 4 WITH AMPLITUDE REMAINING MORE THAN 1. THE
PHASE AND
       AMPLITUDE OF MJO IS CONDUCIVE FOR ENHANCED CONVECTION AND
HENCE
       CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE BOB DURING NEXT 2 DAYS.
       LOW LEVEL VORTICITY IS AROUND 150 X10-6 S-1 NEAR SYSTEM CENTRE
WITH VERTICAL
       EXTENSION UPTO 500 HPA LEVEL. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS 15X10-5
S-1 TO THE
       NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS
AROUND 20 X10-5 S-1
       TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM CENTRE. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS
MODERATE (15-
       20 KNOTS) AROUND THE SYSTEM CENTRE WITH DECREASING TREND
(BECOMING 10-15
       KNOTS) ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM. CURRENT
CONDITIONS INDICATE
       THAT THE SYSTEM IS LYING IN FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT. POLEWARD
OUTFLOW IS
       SEEN IN UPPER LEVELS. THE SYSTEM IS TRACKING NORTHW ARDS ALONG
THE
       PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONE LYING TO ITS NORTHEAST OVER MYANMAR &
ADJOINING
       THAILAND. UPPER TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS SEEN NEAR 170N.
       NUMERICAL MODELS INDICATE MARGINAL INTENSIFICATION OF THE
SYSTEM DURING
       NEXT 48 HOURS. HOWEVER, MOST OF THE MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS
REGARDING
       NORTHWARDS MOVEMENT OF THE SYSTEM TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST. HOW
EVER,
       THERE IS DIVERGENCE W RT LANDFALL POINT.
       IN VIEW OF ABOVE, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER
INTO A
       CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 12 HRS. IT IS LIKELY TO MOVE NEARLY
       NORTHWARDS ALONG & OFF ANDAMAN ISLANDS TOWARDS MYANMAR COAST
       DURING NEXT 48 HRS AND CROSS MYANMAR COAST AROUND 0000 UTC OF
23RD
       MARCH.=

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