Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu designates 148.163.135.28 as permitted sender) client-ip=148.163.135.28;
From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
Message-ID: <20220327090113.97F7C1C0EF0@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 09:01:13 +0000
MIME-Version: 1.0
Reply-To: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Errors-To: wx-tropl-owner@lists.illinois.edu
Precedence: list
Precedence: bulk
Sender: wx-tropl-request@lists.illinois.edu
Archived-At: <https://lists.illinois.edu/lists/arcsearch_id/wx-tropl/2022-03/20220327090113.97F7C1C0EF0%40weather.cod.edu>
Content-type: multipart/mixed; boundary="----------=_1648371681-119452-788"

This is a multi-part message in MIME format...

------------=_1648371681-119452-788
Content-Type: text/plain

AXPZ20 KNHC 270901
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N74W to 
05N82W to 06N87W to 03.5N103W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N103W
to 04N125W. A second surface trough extends from 04.5N126W to 
07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 
05N to 07N E OF 79W, and 01S to 07N between 85W and 109W. 
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from
02N to 08.5N between 118W and 135W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

Strong northerly gap winds to around 30 kt continue across the 
Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, with fresh to strong winds 
spreading further offshore to near 13N97W. Peak seas across this 
area are to 11 ft. This ongoing strong gap wind event has 
generated a large area of 8 ft seas and greater that extends 
offshore to 09N between 95W and 101W. High pressure centered 
across the Gulf of Mexico driving this gap wind event is shifting
slowly NE and away from Tehuantepec and southern Mexico. The 
high is forecast to shift ENE and across Florida by Monday, and 
will gradually weaken the pressure gradient across southern 
Mexico and Tehuantepec. Winds across Tehuantepec will diminish 
further to fresh to strong speeds Sun afternoon, then briefly 
pulse to strong Sun night across the waters N of 15n, before 
becoming light and variable by Mon afternoon. Wave heights of 
across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly subside will decay 
to 5-8 ft by early Sun evening, then to less than 8 ft by early 
Mon. 

Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1016 mb high 
center west of the area near 26N123W remains over the offshore 
waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing 
light to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters 
offshore of Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in 
northwest swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of 
California, and increase to moderate across far north portions. 
Wave heights are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in 
the southern section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. 
Elsewhere offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds 
are present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell 
mixing with small south swell.

Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across
the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun
afternoon, as weak high pressure dominates the region. On Sun
evening, fresh southerly winds will develop across the far 
northern Gulf of California then become fresh to strong from the 
southwest Sun night through Mon night, ahead of an approaching 
cold front. A vigorous deep-layered low pressure system well
offshore of northern California along 136W will move into 
southern California late Mon, preceded by a cold front. The 
front will usher in large northwest swell across the waters west 
of Baja California beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-14 
ft across the outer waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching 
the waters of Baja Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds
across the northern Gulf of California will build wave heights 
to near 8 ft by Mon evening. Conditions across Tehuantepec will 
improve significantly Sun afternoon and continue through mid- 
week.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are across the 
Papagayo region tonight and extend northward to 11.5N. Wave 
heights with these winds are 4-7 ft but increase to 8 ft well 
downwind along 91W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue 
across the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 05N. 
Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in 
south swell. The exception to this is across the Guatemala 
offshore waters where seas generated from the strong to recent gale
force gap winds across Tehuantepec are producing northwest swell
producing seas of 7-8 ft there.

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through Tue morning. Winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun 
night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker 
into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala 
offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing 
significantly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 26N123W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 16N 
and west of about 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7
ft range. A cold front has entered the northwest portion of the 
discussion area tonight, and extends from 30N135W to beyond 27N140W.
Fresh to strong SW winds prevail within 150 nm SE of the front to
the N of 28N. Seas there are to 8 ft in new NW swell. Behind the
front strong NW to N winds are building in, with wave heights of
8-10 ft in NW swell. Light and variable winds prevail elsewhere
between 120W and the front, with seas of 5-6 ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken 
through Sun as it shifts east-southeastward in response to the 
cold front. This trend will maintain weak trade winds through
Mon, except moderate to fresh winds developing late Sun west of
130W.  Strong and active convection is currently occurring along
and near the ITCZ from 02N TO 08.5N between 118W AND 135W, and 
expected to continue west of about 128W through at least Sun 
night.

The cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 988
mb near 39N136W producing storm force winds. The low is expected
to move eastward and weaken, passing well to the north of 30N 
this weekend and drag the cold front across the northwest waters
tonight, then to a position near 30N128W to 27N133W to 24N140W 
by early Sun afternoon. Strong southwest winds will precede the 
front to within 120 nm and north of 29N, with wave heights 8-9 
ft. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow in 
behind the front along with wave heights of 8-11 ft late 
tonight, building to 10-20 ft on Sun night. Northwest to north 
swell from this system will propagate southward across the area, 
with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to a line 
from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California Sur to 12N119W and to
near 07N140W by Tue night.

$$
Stripling


------------=_1648371681-119452-788
Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8"
Content-Disposition: inline
Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit
MIME-Version: 1.0

= = = == = =
To unsubscribe from WX-TROPL and you already have a login, go to
https://lists.illinois.edu and use the "Unsubscribe" link.  Otherwise email
Chris Novy at cnovy@cox.net and ask to be removed from WX-TROPL.
------------=_1648371681-119452-788--