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From: <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: RSMC La Reunion Tropical Cyclone Analysis
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Message-ID: <20220327105439.58C8B1C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 10:54:39 +0000
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809 
AWIO20 FMEE 271051

TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / RSMC LA REUNION / METEO-FRANCE

BULLETIN FOR CYCLONIC ACTIVITY AND SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER IN
THE SOUTHWEST INDIAN OCEAN

DATE: 2022/03/27 AT 1200 UTC

PART 1:

WARNING SUMMARY:


Warnings WTIO20 and WTIO30 024/10 on the Severe Tropical Storm  HALIMA issued at 06UTC. Next warnings at 12 UTC.

PART 2 :
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION:


Due to the activity of equatorial waves (MRG and Equatorial Rossby) and the presence of the severe  tropical storm HALIMA, a monsoon flow is present between 55oE and 80oE. The convective activity is located mainly near HALIMA and within a convergence zone axed just north of 6oS between 50oE and 70oE.

Severe Tropical Storm  HALIMA :

Position at 09UTC : 20.5oS - 77.2oE

Displacement : South-South-East at 10 kt

Maximum wind averaged over 10 minutes: 65 kt

Estimated minimum central pressure: 975 hPa

For more information on this system, please refer to bulletins WTIO20 and WTIO31 issued at 06UTC and followings.

Elsewhere in the basin, there are no areas with cyclogenesis potential for the next 5 days.

There is no risk of another moderate tropical storm forming over the basin in the next 5 days.

NOTA BENE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of the genesis of a moderate tropical storm over the basin and within the next five days:

Very low:       less than 10%              Moderate:        30% to 60%        Very high:      over 90%
Low:             10% to 30%                  High:               60% to 90%

The Southwestern Indian Ocean basin extends from the equator to 40S and from the african coastlines to 90E.

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