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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
To: <wx-tropl@lists.illinois.edu>
Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220327131551.980601C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 13:15:51 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 271241
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 24/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.7 S / 77.7 E
(TWENTY    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY SEVEN    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 11 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 1.0/24 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 260 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 130 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 00 UTC: 21.9 S / 79.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 205 SE: 195 SW: 215 NW: 175
34 KT NE: 120 SE: 140 SW: 130 NW: 120

24H: 2022/03/28 12 UTC: 22.1 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 185 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 140
34 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 95

36H: 2022/03/29 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 0 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 120 SW: 0 NW: 95

48H: 2022/03/29 12 UTC: 21.1 S / 81.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

60H: 2022/03/30 00 UTC: 20.3 S / 81.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 110 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 75 SW: 75 NW: 0

72H: 2022/03/30 12 UTC: 19.8 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 100 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 75 NW: 0

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 81.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 130 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/01 12 UTC: 18.2 S / 80.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 110 NW: 0

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0- AND CI=3.5

SINCE 08Z, A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN SET UP NEAR THE
CENTER FROM THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS NOTABLE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS TO BE MAINTAINED WITH THE APPEARANCE OF NEW BURTS ON THE LAST
IMAGES. IN THE ABSENCE OF ADDITIONAL DATA TO REFINE THE INTENSITY
ESTIMATE, THIS ONE IS LEFT AT 50 KT CONSIDERING THE RECENT EVOLUTION
AND BEING SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE SATCON (47 KT AT 0826Z, 1-MIN WINDS).

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA REMAINS ON AN UNDULATING TRACK BETWEEN
EAST-SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH TROPO TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. IN THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEK, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLOW DOWN, ROUNDING A LARGE
RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE POSITIONED BETWEEN 10S-20S AND 60S-80S.
BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY DRIFTING IN A GENERAL
NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND POTENTIALLY
CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (RIDGE PRESENT IN THE NORTHEAST BRINGING
A NORTHWEST TO NORTH STEERING FLOW). A STRONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON
THIS PART OF THE TRACK AND WILL DEPEND ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ANYMORE. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
INCREASING BUT THE SYSTEM IS RESISTING QUITE WELL (NO CLEAR TILT ON
THE MICROWAVE IMAGERY) PROBABLY BECAUSE OF ITS HEADING WHICH IS
CURRENTLY PARALLEL TO THE SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, A WEAKENING SHOULD
CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE SUBJECTED TO INTRUSIONS
OF DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS, DUE TO THE EFFECT OF SHEAR. THE
INTENSITY GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE EMERGING:
A CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTESIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM BENEFITING FROM A
TEMPORARILY ATTENUATED SHEAR UNDER AN UPPER LEVELS TROUGH AND IN A
SECOND TIME FROM A MORE EASTERN TRACK PRESERVING THE SYSTEM MORE
DURABLY FROM THE SHEARED CONDITIONS (SCENARIO UKMO/00Z, NVGM/00Z).
THE CMRS OPTS FOR A COMPROMISE WITH A MAINTENANCE AT THE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE UP TO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK IN CONNECTION WITH THE
DECREASE OF SHEAR (AND STILL QUITE WARM WATERS), FOLLOWED BY A
DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IN THE SECOND PART OF THE WEEK.

CYCLONE HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO POPULATED AREAS DURING THE NEXT 5
DAYS.=

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