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Subject: Pacific-EN: Tropical Weather Discussion 
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Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 16:06:39 +0000
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AXPZ20 KNHC 271605
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Mar 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1545 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia near 10N74W to 
06N86W to 04N94W to 03N104W. The ITCZ continues from 03N104W to 
05N117W to 05N126W to 06N131W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered 
moderate to strong convection is noted within 150 nm north of 
the ITCZ between 118W-124W and within 90 nm south of the ITCZ 
between 121W-126W. Scattered moderate convection is from 
02N to 06N between 85W-90W and within 180 nm south of the ITCZ 
between 117W-120W and within 120 nm south of the trough between 
78W-80W.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO

North to northeast winds of 20-30 kt continue across the Gulf of
Tehuantepec this tonight, with fresh to strong winds spreading 
further offshore to near 13N97W. Wave heights in this area are 
in the range of 8-10 ft.This ongoing strong gap wind event has 
generated a large area of 8 ft seas and greater that extends 
offshore to 09N between 95W-101W. High pressure centered across 
the Gulf of Mexico driving this gap wind event is shifting slowly
northeastward away from Tehuantepec and southern Mexico. The 
high is forecast to shift east-northeastward and across Florida 
by Mon. It will gradually weaken the pressure gradient across 
southern Mexico and Tehuantepec. Winds across Tehuantepec will 
diminish further to fresh to strong speeds this afternoon, then 
briefly pulse to strong tonight across the waters north of 
15N, before becoming light and variable by Mon afternoon. Wave 
heights of across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will slowly subside 
will decay to 5-8 ft by early this evening, then to less than 8 
ft by early Mon.

Otherwise, weak high pressure ridging anchored by 1015 mb high 
center west of the area near 25N121W remains over the offshore 
waters. The associated weak pressure gradient is producing light 
to gentle northwest to north winds across the waters offshore of 
Baja southward to 18N. Wave heights are 4-5 ft in northwest 
swell. Light southerly winds prevail in the Gulf of California, 
and increase to moderate across far north portions. Wave heights 
are generally low in the Gulf at 1-3 ft, except in the southern 
section where they are slightly higher of 3-4 ft. Elsewhere 
offshore Mexico, mainly light to gentle variable winds are 
present along with wave heights of 4-5 ft in northwest swell 
mixing with small south swell.

Rather tranquil marine conditions are expected to persist across
the Baja offshore waters and the Gulf of California through Sun
afternoon, as weak high pressure dominates the region. Fresh 
southerly winds will develop across the far northern Gulf of 
California early this evening, then become fresh to strong from 
the southwest tonight through Mon and increase further to near 
gale-force Mon night ahead of an approaching cold front. A 
vigorous deep-layered low pressure system well offshore of 
northern California along 136W will move into southern California
late Mon, preceded by a cold front. The front will usher in 
large northwest swell across the waters west of Baja California 
beginning Mon evening, building seas to 9-13 ft across the outer 
waters of Baja Norte Mon night, and reaching the waters of Baja 
Sur by Tue evening. The strong southwest winds across the 
northern Gulf of California will build wave heights to near 8 ft 
by Mon evening. Conditions across Tehuantepec will improve 
through Tue.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR

Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are across the 
Papagayo region tonight and extend northward to 11.5N. Wave 
heights with these winds are 4-7 ft but increase to 8 ft well 
downwind along 91W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds continue 
across the Gulf of Panama, and extend southward to around 05N. 
Gentle winds prevail elsewhere, with wave heights of 4-6 ft in 
south swell. The exception to this is across the Guatemala 
offshore waters where seas generated from the strong to recent gale
force gap winds across Tehuantepec are producing northwest swell
producing seas of 7-8 ft there.

Winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to fresh
to strong at night through Tue morning. Winds in the Gulf of 
Panama will pulse to fresh to locally strong tonight and Sun 
night. Elsewhere, winds are forecast to be moderate or weaker 
into early next week. Northwest swell from the ongoing Gulf of 
Tehuantepec gap wind event will continue impacting the Guatemala 
offshore water through Sun evening before diminishing 
significantly.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA

A 1016 mb high pressure center is analyzed near 26N123W. The 
weak pressure gradient between the associated subtropical ridge 
and relatively lower pressure in the deep tropics is resulting in
only gentle to moderate trade winds, primarily from 05N to 16N 
and west of about 120W. Wave heights in this zone are in the 5-7
ft range. A cold front extends from near 30N132W to 28N135W to
26N140W. Fresh to strong southwest winds prevail within 150 nm 
southeast of the front to the north of 28N. Wave heights there 
are reaching to 8 ft in a new set of northwest swell. Strong 
northwest to north winds are behind the front, with wave heights
of 8-11 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds prevail 
elsewhere between 120W and the front, with seas of 5-6 ft.

The high pressure north of our area is forecast to weaken 
today as it shifts east-southeastward in response to the cold 
front. This trend will maintain weak trade winds through Mon, 
except moderate to fresh winds developing late Sun west of 130W. 
Strong and active convection is currently occurring along and 
near the ITCZ from 02N to 08N between 118W-126W, and from 07N to 
10N between 131W-137W.

The cold front precedes a rather robust extratropical low of 988
mb near 38N135W producing storm force winds. The low is expected
to move east-southeastward and weaken through tonight. Northwest
to north swell from this system will propagate southward across 
the area, with the leading edge of 8 ft wave heights reaching to 
a line from near Cabo San Lazaro, Baja California Sur to 12N119W 
and to near 07N140W by Tue night.

$$
Aguirre


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