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From: COD Weather Processor <ldm@weather.cod.edu>
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Subject: Indian-S: 1.a Severe Tropical Storm 10 (halima) 
Message-ID: <20220327192331.D2F881C0EEF@weather.cod.edu>
Date: Sun, 27 Mar 2022 19:23:31 +0000
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WTIO30 FMEE 271848
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 25/10/20212022
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 10 (HALIMA)

2.A POSITION 2022/03/27 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.4 S / 79.2 E
(TWENTY ONE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY NINE    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST-SOUTH-EAST 13 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.0/S 0.0/6 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 987 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 43 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 195 SW: 280 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 100 SW: 165 NW: 100
48 KT NE: 45 SE: 0 SW: 60 NW: 55
64 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 0 NW: 0

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS (WINDS RADII IN KM):
12H: 2022/03/28 06 UTC: 21.9 S / 80.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 165 SE: 155 SW: 150 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 95 NW: 75

24H: 2022/03/28 18 UTC: 21.9 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 155 SE: 130 SW: 120 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 95 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 85

36H: 2022/03/29 06 UTC: 21.6 S / 82.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 120 SW: 120 NW: 100
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 65

48H: 2022/03/29 18 UTC: 21.0 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 120 SE: 120 SW: 110 NW: 95
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 85 SW: 85 NW: 55

60H: 2022/03/30 06 UTC: 20.3 S / 82.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 130 SE: 140 SW: 110 NW: 120
34 KT NE: 75 SE: 95 SW: 85 NW: 75

72H: 2022/03/30 18 UTC: 19.8 S / 82.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
28 KT NE: 140 SE: 165 SW: 150 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 85 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 85

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2022/03/31 18 UTC: 18.8 S / 82.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT
LOW
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 120 NW: 0

120H: 2022/04/01 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 81.8 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
LOW

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.0

SINCE 12Z SEVERAL SEVERAL CONVECTIVE BURSTS HAVE OCCURRED IN THE
SOUTH WESTERN QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM IN RESPONSE TO THE MODERATE TO
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. LATE DAY SSMIS IMAGES (1324Z AND 1123Z)
SHOW THE PERSISTENCE OF A POORLY DEFINED EYE IN 89COLOR EVEN IF THE
STRUCTURE IS ABSENT ON 37COLOR. IN THE ABSENCE OF ASCAT PASS CLOSE TO
THE CORE TONIGHT, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF HALIMA REMAINS A BIT
UNCERTAIN. IN VIEW OF THE LAST SATCON ANALYSIS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS ELEMENTS, THE INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 50KT.

IN TERMS OF TRACK, HALIMA REMAINS ON AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
BETWEEN A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND A MID TO HIGH LEVELS
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK, HALIMA WILL PROGRESSIVELY SLOW
DOWN, ROUNDING A LARGE RIDGE OF MID-TROPOSPHERE POSITIONED BETWEEN
10S-20S AND 60S-80S. BEYOND THAT, HALIMA SHOULD SLOW DOWN AGAIN BY
DRIFTING IN A GENERAL NORTHWARD DIRECTION IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK AND
POTENTIALLY CONTRADICTORY STEERING FLOWS (RIDGE PRESENT IN THE
NORTHEAST DRIVING A NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY STEERING FLOW). A
STRONG UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ON THIS PART OF THE TRACK AND WILL DEPEND
ON THE INTENSITY FORECAST. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS BASED ON A
CONSENSUS EXCLUDING SOME MODELS LIKE GFS AND IS THUS EAST OF THE
PREVIOUS RSMC FORECAST. THE LATEST GFS RUNS, DIVERGING FROM MOST OF
THE OTHER MODELS, DID NOT SEEM CONSISTENT WITH THE RECENT EVOLUTION
OF HALIMA, MAKING IT LESS BELIEVABLE.

IN TERMS OF INTENSITY, THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS DO NOT REALLY
FAVOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION ANYMORE. THE DEEP SHEAR IS
INCREASING BUT THE SYSTEM IS RESISTING QUITE WELL PROBABLY BECAUSE OF
ITS MOTION IN THE SAME DIRECTION AS SHEAR. NEVERTHELESS, THE
WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AND THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN IMPACTED BY DRY
AIR INTRUSIONS IN THE MID LEVELS, DUE TO THE SHEAR. THE INTENSITY
GUIDELINES DIVERGE FROM TUESDAY. TWO OPTIONS ARE EMERGING: THE
CONTINUATION OF THE WEAKENING UNTIL DISSIPATION OR A MORE OR LESS
TEMPORARY RE-INTESIFICATION WITH A SYSTEM BENEFITING FROM LOWER SHEAR
UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE RSMC FAVORS A COMPROMISE WITH THE
MAINTENANCE AT THE TROPICAL STORM STAGE UP TO WEDNESDAY IN RELATION
WITH THE DECREASE OF SHEAR (AND STILL QUITE WARM WATERS), FOLLOWED BY
A DEFINITIVE WEAKENING IN THE LATE THIS WEEK.

TROPICAL STORM HALIMA POSES NO THREAT TO POPULATED AREAS DURING THE
NEXT 5 DAYS.=

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